101
“Complete Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation”, “Socialist Market Economy”, “Common Prosperity” & “Dual Circulation” are formally written into the revised CCP Party Constitution.
103
统一回复喷子：
- 谁都没有说过今天就放开“清零”。今天是一个例会。市场预期明年三月两会以后，并逐步动态调整。喷子想多了。
- 例会与二十大一致，但细节有改变（附图）如，点名北京弹窗。
- 继续观察舆论导向、疫苗药品进口和老年人接种情况。并记着中国哲学的渐进主义。西方重启也没有一夜开放。
104
一年前写的预测2022《夕惕若厉》，关于2022年最差情景，经典的滞涨，股债双杀，上证略低于3000点。不幸，一语成谶。
很快，又要到预测2023的时刻了。
105
1/N）系列推：中国房价下跌会引起金融危机吗？
2021底个人房贷¥38.3万亿，一年新增¥3.8万亿；商品房销售¥16万亿，房贷占约25%。调查显示：买房平均首付50%；二套房首付40-60%。房贷¥38.3万亿 vs 总房地产敞口¥62万亿。
因首付高，房价下跌*应该难直接*导致金融危机。
106
Whichever industry Tsinghua/PKU grads chose to go, the industry’d die:
- 2005 P&G/Unilever: Foreign Co. Peak
- 2008 Banks/Mobile: State Limit Salary
- 2015 Internet: Bubble Burst
- 2019 Teaching in Shenzhen: SZ Cut Teacher Salary
- 2020 Civil Servant: Local Gov Broke
Now what?
107
Today’s report.
English PDF 《“Chill” about CNY beyond 7》: research.growim.com/20220918Chilla…
中文PDF 《佛系“破7”》：research.growim.com/20220918Chilla…
108
Huawei’s Ren Zhengfei:
1. Global recession, no recovery in next 3-5yrs. NO ONE IS SPARED;
2. Focus on cash/profit, not sales. On life support in 2023/24, SURVIVAL UNSURE; STOP EMPTY TALKS;
3. KILL unprofitable units; FEEL THE CHILL
I thought we’re NOT allowed to be bearish?
109
I’m opening Grow Investment Group’s HK office. After 25 years of research, I finally cross the road from sell-side to buy-side.
What’s past is prologue.
凡是過往，皆為序章。
彭博社报道链接：bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
112
Nowadays researching in China is like shouting underwater — it’s all muffled.
But the longer the voices are suppressed under water, the more fierce the struggle will be, and the bigger the stir later.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
113
去年九月，我与敦和资管首席执行官张志洲先生讨论，中国市场里细分行业龙头的机会，以及为什么港股这么便宜，却还是没有人买（2/2）
114
China Youth Unemployment at ALL TIME HIGH: ~20%.
中国青年失业率有史以来最高，近20%。
115
房地产对GDP增长贡献的占比全面崩塌。
Chinese property contribution to GDP growth has absolutely collapsed.
116
“Officers who fail to buy properties within specified time will be transferred to other work units. In the future, property buying will be part of your performance measures.”
Property Stimulus is here.
117
At the keynote speech of the 20th Congress, most frequently used words were “people 人民/development 发展/safety 安全”. “Struggle 斗争/tech科技” were used a lot more than 19th Congress. But almost no mention about “market 市场”.
118
Today’s report: the relationship between Chinese property & economy has changed, but few noticed. $HSI#HSIis cheap, but ... Property stimulus won’t work as well as it used to.
English report PDF: research.growim.com/20220925growre…
中文报告PDF：research.growim.com/20220925growre…
119
当前青年人的矛盾:
1000万毕业生，多了；
1000万新生儿，少了；
65岁退休，早了；
35岁就业，老了；
60岁三胎，还年轻！
Quandaries for the youth:
10m graduates’re too many,
10m newborns too few.
At 65 too young to retire,
at 35 too old to be employed.
60’s ripe to have your 3rd kid.
120
中国美债持仓跌破一万亿美元。2010年六月持仓首次突破一万亿，2013年11月达到高点一万三千亿后开始持续减仓。
中美脱钩进行时。
China’s holding of US treasury fell below $1tn for the 1st time since Jun/2010. China’s been slowly reducing US treasury since Nov/2013.
Decoupling.
121
“The young’d love everything, the old’d give it all up. Everyone’s in a lifelong pursuit of a soulmate, only to find it in oneself.
The kindhearted is late bloomer, bent by the wicked, initiated yet unchanged & still searching same … eventually end up alone”.
— Mo Yan
122
Allen Zhu of GSR Ventures said China to reopen over 2023: 1st, T-1 cities ex BJ; then large cities; then all before end 2023. If so, 1.5 years to endure. “Startups must plan cash-flow accordingly”.
朱啸虎称全境开放还要等一年半。苦俟河清，人、生意、现金流都要熬过去。
123
四川限电事件专家会议
Expert Notes on Electricity Rationing in Sichuan:
- abnormal heat once in decades, demand gap >1/4 ann. usage;
- rationing will be the “new normal”;
- industrial prod halted in all cities but 2;
- coal power won’t do or change 14th 5-Yr-Plan on energy.
124
很尊重老蛮的分析，但是这个帖子有些标题党：
- 这些数据的来源是公开的：央行、发改委、中登和上清所等。地方政府平台的数据可以从城投报表里看到。60、70万亿的估算也是来自官方摸底数据。因此，不存在什么“真实”、“大起底”这样的说法。
-… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
125
一群喷子质疑中科院金属所硕士、香港中文大学物理系材料专业博士的学历，认为研究真空正负能量分离的刘本良博士要骗他们五千块钱。
“这是文明级别的差异 .. 读书不能只是为了钱，是为了能做改变人类的事业。我就是为了传播这个价值。知道吗？”
刘博选择只研究、不工作，比去街道的清北博士强大多了。
Economist of the Year - Asian Private Banker; FT Book of 2020; No.1 Strategist/Economist - AsiaMoney. “The man who called China’s boom & bust” - Bloomberg