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感恩的赠礼：在未来两天里，第一位和最后一位点赞或转发的朋友、以及之间的随机随缘选择的八位朋友，我将赠予我的《预测》思睿订制版一本，并亲笔签名。(由于快递限制，暂时只能寄往国内的读者朋友。)
感谢您一直以来的支持和关注🙏
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刘瑜：普通人能做的恶是有限的。平庸的恶乘以权力系数，就会被放大。而且权力有洗脑的能力，是(恶的)放大器，更是扭曲场。
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“I Hope Happy Thanksgiving Day, Everybody!”
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“当你深入了解这块土地上的人们时，你会发现，他们的思想，配得上他们所受的苦难。” -- 巴金
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黄奇帆与王波明谈中国房地产见顶。我的分析更具体。他混淆了几个指标，但瑕不掩瑜。
Celebrity politician Huang Qifan discussed Chinese property with Caijing Chief Editor Wang Boming. Aging pop, peaking urbanization & living space, large inventory & peak price all spell big trouble.
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COVID Outbreak In Zhengzhou, Henan. Tens of thousands Foxconn workers walking out of factory lockdown, going home bare foot on the Central Plain’s great earth. 在中原的大地上默默行走着…
2022 hasn’t been kind to Henan’s people. Hope they get home safe.
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互联网创业行业黑话：
智慧城市：路口装摄像头
人工智能：自动回复
大数据分析：收集用户隐私
社区团购：网上买菜，明天小卖部自提
下半场：快不行了
共享经济：分时租赁
连续创业：多次创业失败
联合创始人：老员工
颠覆式创新：捣乱
赋能：拉你一把
发力：烧钱
闭环：自产自销
孵化器：办公室是租的
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Ex-President Jiang Zemin on his way back from a US state visit, November 1993.
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Ex-Premier Wen Jiabao: the progress of human society is via debates among diff. schools of thoughts … For China to have a truly bright future, we must promote independent & critical thinking… & create a free academic environment for people to seek the truth & meaning of life.
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安倍最后的午餐。人生由命非由他，有酒不飲奈若何。
Abe’s last lunch. Such is life.
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一些你应该知道的马甲：
玉渊谭天：央视新闻
陶然笔记：经济日报
朝阳少侠：外交部
有理儿有面：政法委
侠客岛：人民日报/海外版
补壹刀：人民日报社/环球网
枢密院十号：人民日报社/环球网
牛弹琴：新华社
长安街知事：北京日报
青蜂侠：中国青年网
市说新语：国家市场监督管理局
(请找一下图中🦓)
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“正因为他心里明亮，才得以看见这世间阴暗的一面，才知道这世道竟还有龌龊；他之所以谴责，是希望变好；他之所以批判，是希望改变；只有心存光明的人，才愿意去谴责和批判。
谁若无视这社会最底层人民所受的苦难、对社会的各种假丑恶付之以冷漠，谁才最阴暗”。
—《致敬为民生和社会灾难发声的人》
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蔡洪平与王波明聊中国半导体实际情况：只能做>28纳米；光刻机零件受制；没有国际合作，零机会赶上，且越追越远。
Cai Hongping discussed China’s semi: can only do >28nm; US bans endanger key parts of lithograph; w/o global co-op, China has 0 chance to catch up, lagging further behind.
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An old picture is worth a thousand words.
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Li Zhanshu, Chairman of the Standing Committee of NPCC: China understands & supports Russia’s core interest & decisions. Re Ukraine, Russia was cornered by the U.S./NATO & had to defend itself & its people.
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中国五千年历史时空图。一部狼烟遍野的历史。纵有飞将御边，也难守四夷之世也。
秦时明月汉时关，匣里金刀血未干。
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“买了三套买四套”
This has gone viral on Chinese internet.
“I call on every comrade to take the lead to buy a property.
If you are on your 1st property, then buy a 2nd one; if on 2nd, then buy a 3rd; already on 3rd? There’s always room for the 4th.”
Now let the buying begin.
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1966.08.18, Today 56 years ago, Chairman Mao greeting the Little Red Guards for the first time on Tiananmen Square, with then Premier Zhou Enlai, Jiang Qing, Lin Biao.
The onset of Cultural Revolution.
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“我认为现在大部分中国人，60%以上，甚至说99%，不把自己当人看。我们之所以是人，是因为我们有理性、能思考、有自由意志。自由意志包括了要去表达。如果你想说一个话，别人不让你说，你就不说了，这就是你不把自己当人看。” — 张维迎，2014
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30年前，葛优讲解如何写出更好的文章。中国情景喜剧首秀即天花板。文字是用来解放思想的，而非禁锢。
In China’s 1st sitcom 30 yrs ago, Ge You explained writing for the people, not dictating to them. Chinese sitcom peaked at debut. Words are to set the mind free, not to confine it.
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This is the year people will talk about.
This is the year people will be silent about.
The old see the young die.
The foolish see the wise die.
The earth no longer produces, it devours.
The sky hurls down no rain, only iron.
- Bertolt Brecht - 1940
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GDP of Chinese cities in lockdown now 35% of total, highest since 2021. Shenzhen, China Silicon Valley, has 8 districts in lockdown.
If persists, 3Q GDP will be even worse than 2Q of 0.4% growth, full year GDP 2.x%.
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为什么救中国房地产那么难。
This explains why it’s so hard to save Chinese property.
Economist of the Year - Asian Private Banker; FT Book of 2020; No.1 Strategist/Economist - AsiaMoney. “The man who called China’s boom & bust” - Bloomberg