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很尊重老蛮的分析，但是这个帖子有些标题党：
- 这些数据的来源是公开的：央行、发改委、中登和上清所等。地方政府平台的数据可以从城投报表里看到。60、70万亿的估算也是来自官方摸底数据。因此，不存在什么“真实”、“大起底”这样的说法。
-… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
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2003.04.02 一语成谶。
Front page of a Chinese newspaper 20 years ago read: ZERO POPULATION GROWTH IN 2022.
Today, China reports first population decline in 61 years.
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The preeminent CASS forecasts that Chinese pension will run out by 2035. For people born after 1980 there may not be enough pension.
Note that as %GDP, pension savings peak at 2024, likely a result of aging demo and thus less pay-in than payout. Not a pretty picture.
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2023年投资展望。讨论了中国经济周期的运行、市场的周期低点、房地产、美联储政策展望和中美周期和冲突。完整30分钟节目链接 news.tvb.com/tc/programme/p…
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刘瑜：普通人能做的恶是有限的。平庸的恶乘以权力系数，就会被放大。而且权力有洗脑的能力，是(恶的)放大器，更是扭曲场。
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“我认为现在大部分中国人，60%以上，甚至说99%，不把自己当人看。我们之所以是人，是因为我们有理性、能思考、有自由意志。自由意志包括了要去表达。如果你想说一个话，别人不让你说，你就不说了，这就是你不把自己当人看。” — 张维迎，2014
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这十年的总结：
2013年 “着力防控债务风险”
2014年 “新常态”
2015年 “供给侧改革”
2016年 “房住不炒”
2017年 “三年三大攻坚战”
2018年 “百年未有之大变局”
2019年 “关键之年”
2020年 “强化反垄断和防止资本无序扩张”、“共同富裕”
2021年 “需求供给冲击、预期转弱、三重压力”
这十年，还剩15天了。 twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
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“All Our Pharmacists Are Positive. Pls Bear With US.” - COVID situation in Beijing.
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Premier Li Keqiang visiting Huangshan, one of China’s most famous mountains, with Chiefs of IMF, World Bank, OECD etc.
“We are showing our hospitality to our foreign friends. After the pandemic, there will be more guests from domestic and afar.” Li said.
No one’s wearing mask.
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“新十条”防疫新政：
- 新冠降为乙类传染病
- 不判定密接
- 防控重点转为防重症
- 确诊可居家，不强制去方舱***
- 社会面不再搞核酸
- 分类分诊
- 提高疫苗接种，特别是老人
- 出入、交通全面恢复
- 方舱清空（如图）
- 复工复产
现在再去讨论疫情，就如，领导停了你还说，领导夹菜你转桌。
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中国逐步重启方向明确，伴随中国市场史诗级行情。新冠病例将激增，纷乱如影随形，震波也将若隐若现。但我们咬定青山，持正不挠。
美元长期趋势开始拐头下行。随着中国重启，网购、外卖需求增加，互联网平台应继续跑赢。 growinvestment.group/2022/12/05/%e6…
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我的研究报告网站 growinvestment.group 是Wordpress上成长速度最快的金融网站。写了一个多月，四篇报告 (中英文一式两份)，阅读量已近28万。
一个真正的IP是独立的，是无法陨灭的。 twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
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An old picture is worth a thousand words.
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《论中国信息技术产业发展》江泽民
最有前瞻性的预判之一。
As early as 2006, Jiang Zemin presaged the dawn of the semi industry. If not sufficiently developed, China would be vulnerable to embargo by the west, he said. He also foresaw China’s ability to make 14nm chips by 2020. twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
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Ex-President Jiang Zemin on his way back from a US state visit, November 1993.
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广州解封。今天广州疫情发布会的六点总结。
Guangzhou reopens. It’s one of the worst-hit cities in the current wave of COVID. Guangzhou is known for being practical & freewheeling. It will set example for other cities still beset by a virus that’s even weaker than flu.
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COVID PCR testing companies reporting soaring earnings growth YTD, one topping the chart with 32,000% growth, followed by another with 6,800%!
And there’s a person opening 16 PCR testing co, most after Shanghai lockdown in April.
This is probably the only growth industry now.
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“正因为他心里明亮，才得以看见这世间阴暗的一面，才知道这世道竟还有龌龊；他之所以谴责，是希望变好；他之所以批判，是希望改变；只有心存光明的人，才愿意去谴责和批判。
谁若无视这社会最底层人民所受的苦难、对社会的各种假丑恶付之以冷漠，谁才最阴暗”。
—《致敬为民生和社会灾难发声的人》
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This is the year people will talk about.
This is the year people will be silent about.
The old see the young die.
The foolish see the wise die.
The earth no longer produces, it devours.
The sky hurls down no rain, only iron.
- Bertolt Brecht - 1940
Economist of the Year - Asian Private Banker; FT Book of 2020; No.1 Strategist/Economist - AsiaMoney. “The man who called China’s boom & bust” - Bloomberg