51
Hainan Lockdown, the mess at Santa Airport. Authority apologized, promised free room & board, but the crowd chanted: WE WANNA GO HOME.
Nothing Is Free Without Freedom.
52
电池技术傻瓜指南。很多人说电池技术是新能源汽车的核心。看完了这个小视频，觉得有点内个 …
Battery technology made easy. I was told that battery’s essential to new-energy cars. Sounds like a scam after this clip.
53
Asia Pet Fair in Shenzhen was canceled at the last minute. Nanshan District in SZ lockdown.
Exhibitors paid millions for stages/inventory/labor/rent — all gone, together with “light, hope & dream” .. despondent.
COVID-0 disruption continues. “光、理想、希望都没了”.
54
1/🧵China income data reveal new reality of “Common Prosperity”:
- Of 1,400m people, 964m <¥2k/month ($300), 547m < ¥1k ($150), only 70m people pay tax at min taxable income ¥5k/month ($770);
- ¥18k p.a. (56th %) x 2.62 pp/Household = ¥47k/HH = $7,255/HH (4th % US HH income).
55
Country Garden cut the selling price at one of its residential developments by 1/3. Those who paid full price smashed the sales office. Similar incidents had happened before, and will again. It’s impossible to remove “the guarantee of principal”（刚性兑付）in China.
57
“土地国有制是一切社会问题的根源，包括腐败、社会不平等”。许成钢，2013
然而，土地国有类似于自古以来的”盐铁专营”，土地税、转让金“取之于无形，使人不怒”，是中国社会“超稳定结构”的支柱之一。
“State ownership of land is the root of all society ills.” — Xu Chenggang, 2013
58
China’s Fauci, Dr. Zhang Wenhong:
“It’s imperative for me to be vaccinated. But I could only speak for myself. If I, a so-called COVID guru, were infected, it’d be a huge scandal. But for young guys, COVID’s no big deal.
For the country it’s imperative. Frontline staffs, too.”
59
大陆反制，禁止进口上百种台湾农产品/食品；但这些只占台湾出口大陆1%。
台湾重要出口是IC集成电路等电子产品，占80%。中国每年IC进口2.4万亿美元，自足率<20%，并两倍于原油1.2万亿。
台积电中国总比约10%，硅片大从日本进口；中芯28纳米以下高端芯片<20%，差距很大，也是美国封锁芯片技术的原因。
60
Lee Kuan Yew on China (1993):
“We want peaceful rising. But what about the next generation? If they believe the imperialists rip-off China, they’ll become belligerent..
Let next gen appreciate isolation & ideological mistakes’re costly .. Or China’d cut off & turn chauvinist.”
61
人民经济的四个特征：自主性、在地性、综合性、人民性。维护主权、自主发展、具有爱国主义性质的经济体都称为“人民经济”。
“人民经济应成为中国经济学界关注和讨论的焦点课题。人民经济取代市场经济是世界大势所趋”。
62
2023年投资展望。讨论了中国经济周期的运行、市场的周期低点、房地产、美联储政策展望和中美周期和冲突。完整30分钟节目链接 news.tvb.com/tc/programme/p…
63
【2022-11-21 展望2023｜或跃在渊】短周期接近底部，但房地产复苏非一日之功。上证3-3,500，恒指16-23,000。出口中周期继续下行，与共识所盼之“大牛市”相悖。
任尔东西南北风，无论我们在2022年遭遇了多少暗流险滩，眼下是时候重振旗鼓，举步向前了。 growinvestment.group/2022/11/21/%e6…
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“The Yangtze”, An Epic Documentary (1/2)
In 1980, a young Japanese musician Sada Masashi fell in love with the Yangtze during his concert trip to China. 1.13m feet of film recorded the Yangtze’s glory in China’s early days of Reform & Open.
He took on ¥3.5tn debt, 30y to repay.
65
Surreal images from James Web. It took over 20 years, $10bn to construct. But China blows that much on daily COVID tests every 3 days.
韦伯望远镜从时间的尽头传来宇宙的秘密。韦伯的建造花了二十多年，逾100亿美元。却只够中国全民做三次核酸。
66
HK Chief Executive Carrie Lam boarded flight to Beijing for the national day ceremony, shaking hands and taking selfie with fellow passengers. She’s flying with Air China.
67
1997, Clinton & Jiang Zemin’s joint press conference. Then Jiang invited Clinton to dine at the Great Hall of People, & conducted the orchestra together. Jiang even chitchatted with Hilary a little.
The good old days, when China’s charm offensive was at its best.
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六月新冠死亡人数0，流感4。一个死亡率最低的传染病却消耗着大量的医疗资源。
China recorded 0 death from COVID in June, but 4 death from flu. A disease with 0 death rate consumes bulk of healthcare resources.
69
“We’re not afraid of COVID, but we’re afraid of disobedience.”
70
给艺考生们说一下目前就业趋势：
表演--密室剧本/NPC；
播音--带货主播；
声乐--教小孩儿；
器乐--教小孩儿；
舞蹈--教小孩儿；
编导--给上面五个拍抖音。
71
Shenzhen invites bids to build phase 4 of personal tax platform, focusing on high-networth individuals, incl. stock ownership transfer, non-cash investment, ESOP/stock dividend tax installments etc.
Common prosperity is coming .. to a city near you. There’s no place to hide.
72
Traffic jam in Beijing. Sign of Reopening.
73
这十年的总结：
2013年 “着力防控债务风险”
2014年 “新常态”
2015年 “供给侧改革”
2016年 “房住不炒”
2017年 “三年三大攻坚战”
2018年 “百年未有之大变局”
2019年 “关键之年”
2020年 “强化反垄断和防止资本无序扩张”、“共同富裕”
2021年 “需求供给冲击、预期转弱、三重压力”
这十年，还剩15天了。 twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
74
广州解封。今天广州疫情发布会的六点总结。
Guangzhou reopens. It’s one of the worst-hit cities in the current wave of COVID. Guangzhou is known for being practical & freewheeling. It will set example for other cities still beset by a virus that’s even weaker than flu.
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房地产内部会议纪要
Internal Property Meeting Summary:
- 300m sq construction halt, T-2 cities worst; local gov can’t handle;
- Rumored property fund of ¥200-300bn not enough; few shanty towns left to redevelop;
- Sales -20%, starts -30%, investment -10%: Existing supply surging
Economist of the Year - Asian Private Banker; FT Book of 2020; No.1 Strategist/Economist - AsiaMoney. “The man who called China’s boom & bust” - Bloomberg