76
The 20th Congress raised a new term “to regulate the mechanism of wealth accumulation”.
Today, a labor researcher said “wealth income growth can’t be multiple times of labor income growth .. excess wealth should be taxed/regulated”.
Chinese market freaked out. Moutai tanked.
78
彭博微信公众号因举报被封。中国市场越发闭塞误导，定价失效。“稳定”压抑一切、无论对错，但明斯基终图穷匕见。
Bloomberg WeChat account suspended ‘cos snitchers. “Back to the USSR”. Mainland market increasingly misinformed & mispriced. Stability veils Minsky moment.
79
COVID PCR testing companies reporting soaring earnings growth YTD, one topping the chart with 32,000% growth, followed by another with 6,800%!
And there’s a person opening 16 PCR testing co, most after Shanghai lockdown in April.
This is probably the only growth industry now.
81
全国已知烂尾楼名单更新到逾百。*假设6%在建烂尾* x 100亿平米在建=6亿平 x ¥1万/平=¥6万亿；1/3的¥18万亿年销量、平均首付60%=¥2-3万亿贷款，～8%的¥39万亿存量房贷；100平/套=600万套住宅 x 户均3人=～2千万受灾群众。
*6%是受灾估算关键假设。烂尾断供名单星火燎原。闻深圳13万/平网红盘也断供了。
82
Premier Li Keqiang visiting Huangshan, one of China’s most famous mountains, with Chiefs of IMF, World Bank, OECD etc.
“We are showing our hospitality to our foreign friends. After the pandemic, there will be more guests from domestic and afar.” Li said.
No one’s wearing mask.
83
1990, former president Jiang Zeming talked to ABC’s Barbara Walters on why China/US favorable trade agreement should continue. He ditched the interpreter half way. Great clip.
84
1/N：为什么中国房地产这两年问题这么多？1987-2021，中国城镇人口从2.75亿到9亿，新增6.25亿人口 x 35-40平米/人=220-250亿平米；同期，中国商品房销售累计231亿平米。供给～=需求。
Why Chinese property in trouble: 1987-2021 urban pop +625m x 37sqm/p ~=230m sqm; home sales = 231m sqm
85
China’s marriage registration in 2021 7.64m pairs - down 45% from 2013 peak of 13.5m pairs - lowest in almost 40 years.
86
- 二季度，9城甲级写字楼空置率>30%，天津最高近50%，去化压力大；
- 8城处于20%～30%；
- 北上广在20%以内。
Office building vacancy rate% in 40 cities:
- 9 cities vacancy >30%, Tianjin highest at ~50%;
- 8 cities 20-30%;
- T-1 cities <20%.
Too many offices, too few businesses.
87
Today’s global market map: what’s going on in China?
88
Behold- China infrastructure investment in January. Gone vertical!
89
静待潮水来了解套。看看人家海狮：心态最重要，不要忘记微笑。
“Waiting for a rising tide to lift my boat. Meanwhile, smile.” — A stranded seal.
90
“If I weren’t Chinese, I’d be more open & less ambivalent. I’d gloat, as China’s vast & deprived population tormented & hated — like ants, dying trying. It’s a joke.
Pity I’m Chinese, born in desperate struggles against fate. I feel love, hate & sorry for her.” — Hu Xijin, 2012
91
最烦这些研究报告的套话（括号解毒）
- 风物长宜/可期/静待（现在没戏）
- 估值吸引（其它方面没戏）
- 四轮驱动（少一个轮子就没戏）
- 深挖个股（行业没戏）
- 不确定中找确定（找免费午餐=全面没戏）
- 区间震荡（这是真的不知道）
当然，分析师也无奈。鱼缸里的鱼，只知道鱼缸里的天地。
92
China Loan Demand Collapsing. Not Seen Since Burst of 2015 Bubble.
中国贷款需求崩塌。2015年泡沫破灭以来未见。
93
中国逐步重启方向明确，伴随中国市场史诗级行情。新冠病例将激增，纷乱如影随形，震波也将若隐若现。但我们咬定青山，持正不挠。
美元长期趋势开始拐头下行。随着中国重启，网购、外卖需求增加，互联网平台应继续跑赢。 growinvestment.group/2022/12/05/%e6…
94
CCTV poster concedes pets don’t transmit COVID, calling for kindness towards our animal friends & respect for life. A u-turn. Those atrocious videos of “big white” going into homes to kill pets alive still haunting us.
Again, monitor propaganda change for gradual COVID-0 exit.
95
US semi ban on China ripping the roots of China’s semi industry. US Engineers have to choose between working in China and giving up US citizenship.
All chips with advanced US tech banned. KLA, Lam & $AMA#AMAT pulling US staffs out. Big foundry capex in 2023 clipped.
96
ASML stops its US employees from providing service to China, effective immediately.
Dr. Yu CAO is a graduate of University of Science & Technology of China and later Caltech PhD; worked at Alibaba US before joining ASML in 2015.
97
20条 “20 measures” cut foreign quarantine to 5+3, cancel Int’l flights circuit breaker, no indiscriminate lockdown, end unnecessary COVID test, no tracing 2ndary close contact, free people stuck in COVID zone etc.
My “billion-dollar tweet” 2wks ago all turned true. HK +8%!
98
Investors in Evergrande wealth mgmt demanding repayment. An emergency meeting was hosted this weekend but no one’s willing to accept the proposal that basically attempted to delay payments. The Corp has 240bn in ST debt but only 86bn cash/quasi. Stock -7%.
99
关于长期潜在增长率。
彭博专访链接：bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
100
青年失业率/Youth unemployment
中国 China 🇨🇳：19.3%；
美国 US 🇺🇸 ：14.9%；
欧盟 EU🇪🇺：13.3%；
日本 JP🇯🇵：3.89%。
中国青年失业率有数据以来最高。China youth unemployment highest in data history.
Economist of the Year - Asian Private Banker; FT Book of 2020; No.1 Strategist/Economist - AsiaMoney. “The man who called China’s boom & bust” - Bloomberg