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六月新冠死亡人数0，流感4。一个死亡率最低的传染病却消耗着大量的医疗资源。
China recorded 0 death from COVID in June, but 4 death from flu. A disease with 0 death rate consumes bulk of healthcare resources.
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1/N）系列推：中国房价下跌会引起金融危机吗？
2021底个人房贷¥38.3万亿，一年新增¥3.8万亿；商品房销售¥16万亿，房贷占约25%。调查显示：买房平均首付50%；二套房首付40-60%。房贷¥38.3万亿 vs 总房地产敞口¥62万亿。
因首付高，房价下跌*应该难直接*导致金融危机。
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当前青年人的矛盾:
1000万毕业生，多了；
1000万新生儿，少了；
65岁退休，早了；
35岁就业，老了；
60岁三胎，还年轻！
Quandaries for the youth:
10m graduates’re too many,
10m newborns too few.
At 65 too young to retire,
at 35 too old to be employed.
60’s ripe to have your 3rd kid.
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温铁军：80年代北朝鲜比中国发达，农业现代化、人均GDP比中国高。但快速城镇化使农业人口锐减，俄油断掉后农业断粮，饥荒衰退。
Wen Tiejun, renowned agri-economist: North Korea agri production/GDP per cap > China in 1980s; then Russia oil supply stopped — agri failed — tailspin.
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Huawei’s Ren Zhengfei:
1. Global recession, no recovery in next 3-5yrs. NO ONE IS SPARED;
2. Focus on cash/profit, not sales. On life support in 2023/24, SURVIVAL UNSURE; STOP EMPTY TALKS;
3. KILL unprofitable units; FEEL THE CHILL
I thought we’re NOT allowed to be bearish?
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一图看懂中国经济现状。
A picture to sum up China’s economy.
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“The Yangtze”, An Epic Documentary (1/2)
In 1980, a young Japanese musician Sada Masashi fell in love with the Yangtze during his concert trip to China. 1.13m feet of film recorded the Yangtze’s glory in China’s early days of Reform & Open.
He took on ¥3.5tn debt, 30y to repay.
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一群喷子质疑中科院金属所硕士、香港中文大学物理系材料专业博士的学历，认为研究真空正负能量分离的刘本良博士要骗他们五千块钱。
“这是文明级别的差异 .. 读书不能只是为了钱，是为了能做改变人类的事业。我就是为了传播这个价值。知道吗？”
刘博选择只研究、不工作，比去街道的清北博士强大多了。
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中国房地产三大未解之谜：
1）房价这么高，为什么还在买？
2）住房拥有率这么高，谁还在买？
3）房价、住房拥有率这么高，为什么泡沫还不破灭？
3 unsolved mysteries of Chinese Property:
1) price so high why still buying?
2) ownership so high who still buying?
3) 1&2 but no bubble burst?
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中国至美国海运订单剧烈下降；中国制造业订单下降20-30%；DHL称“不计成本发货的经济模式进入拐点”。
Shipping bookings from China to US way down; China manu order down 20-30%. DHL called “tipping point for the ship-at-all-cost economy”. (CNBC)
cnbc.com/2022/08/25/chi…
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China’s Fauci, Dr. Zhang Wenhong:
“It’s imperative for me to be vaccinated. But I could only speak for myself. If I, a so-called COVID guru, were infected, it’d be a huge scandal. But for young guys, COVID’s no big deal.
For the country it’s imperative. Frontline staffs, too.”
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“有一只猪有些与众不同。它是肉猪，但长得又黑又瘦，两眼炯炯有光。这家伙像山羊一样敏捷，一米高的猪栏一跳就过；它还能跳上猪圈的房顶，这一点又像是猫，不在圈里待着。
领导把它定成坏分子，要对它采取专政 .. 但假如专政是指绳索和杀猪刀的话，那是一点门都没有.”
— 王小波《一只特立独行的猪》
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I’m opening Grow Investment Group’s HK office. After 25 years of research, I finally cross the road from sell-side to buy-side.
What’s past is prologue.
凡是過往，皆為序章。
彭博社报道链接：bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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关于美联储货币政策和市场泡沫的讨论。每次美国经济衰退、市场泡沫破灭，都是美联储加息加出来的。无一例外。
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Asia Pet Fair in Shenzhen was canceled at the last minute. Nanshan District in SZ lockdown.
Exhibitors paid millions for stages/inventory/labor/rent — all gone, together with “light, hope & dream” .. despondent.
COVID-0 disruption continues. “光、理想、希望都没了”.
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GDP of Chinese cities in lockdown now 35% of total, highest since 2021. Shenzhen, China Silicon Valley, has 8 districts in lockdown.
If persists, 3Q GDP will be even worse than 2Q of 0.4% growth, full year GDP 2.x%.
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Li Zhanshu, Chairman of the Standing Committee of NPCC: China understands & supports Russia’s core interest & decisions. Re Ukraine, Russia was cornered by the U.S./NATO & had to defend itself & its people.
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Today’s report.
English PDF 《“Chill” about CNY beyond 7》: research.growim.com/20220918Chilla…
中文PDF 《佛系“破7”》：research.growim.com/20220918Chilla…
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中国五千年历史时空图。一部狼烟遍野的历史。纵有飞将御边，也难守四夷之世也。
秦时明月汉时关，匣里金刀血未干。
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Today’s report: the relationship between Chinese property & economy has changed, but few noticed. $HSI#HSIis cheap, but ... Property stimulus won’t work as well as it used to.
English report PDF: research.growim.com/20220925growre…
中文报告PDF：research.growim.com/20220925growre…
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人民经济的四个特征：自主性、在地性、综合性、人民性。维护主权、自主发展、具有爱国主义性质的经济体都称为“人民经济”。
“人民经济应成为中国经济学界关注和讨论的焦点课题。人民经济取代市场经济是世界大势所趋”。
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王小鲁：市场化是社会发展的必经之路。你想不要这套东西，实践证明你失败了。思想、技术、制度财富是人类共同的财富，不要学义和团，凡是外来的都拒绝，自己把路走死了。
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China’s marriage registration in 2021 7.64m pairs - down 45% from 2013 peak of 13.5m pairs - lowest in almost 40 years.
Economist of the Year - Asian Private Banker; FT Book of 2020; No.1 Strategist/Economist - AsiaMoney. “The man who called China’s boom & bust” - Bloomberg