26
最烦这些研究报告的套话（括号解毒）
- 风物长宜/可期/静待（现在没戏）
- 估值吸引（其它方面没戏）
- 四轮驱动（少一个轮子就没戏）
- 深挖个股（行业没戏）
- 不确定中找确定（找免费午餐=全面没戏）
- 区间震荡（这是真的不知道）
当然，分析师也无奈。鱼缸里的鱼，只知道鱼缸里的天地。
27
静待潮水来了解套。看看人家海狮：心态最重要，不要忘记微笑。
“Waiting for a rising tide to lift my boat. Meanwhile, smile.” — A stranded seal.
28
全国已知烂尾楼名单更新到逾百。*假设6%在建烂尾* x 100亿平米在建=6亿平 x ¥1万/平=¥6万亿；1/3的¥18万亿年销量、平均首付60%=¥2-3万亿贷款，～8%的¥39万亿存量房贷；100平/套=600万套住宅 x 户均3人=～2千万受灾群众。
*6%是受灾估算关键假设。烂尾断供名单星火燎原。闻深圳13万/平网红盘也断供了。
29
Surreal images from James Web. It took over 20 years, $10bn to construct. But China blows that much on daily COVID tests every 3 days.
韦伯望远镜从时间的尽头传来宇宙的秘密。韦伯的建造花了二十多年，逾100亿美元。却只够中国全民做三次核酸。
30
越南经典电影《常在我心中》
Vietnamese theatre classic “Always on My Mind”.
32
鲁迅：“今春的两种感想” —《集外集拾遗》1932
“When in China, … if you want to talk about the Chinese society, about oppressor & the oppressed — forget it. But if your topic ventures out of China, to Paris & London, to the moon & beyond, then anything goes.”
— Lu Xun, 1932
33
青年失业率/Youth unemployment
中国 China 🇨🇳：19.3%；
美国 US 🇺🇸 ：14.9%；
欧盟 EU🇪🇺：13.3%；
日本 JP🇯🇵：3.89%。
中国青年失业率有数据以来最高。China youth unemployment highest in data history.
34
1/N：为什么中国房地产这两年问题这么多？1987-2021，中国城镇人口从2.75亿到9亿，新增6.25亿人口 x 35-40平米/人=220-250亿平米；同期，中国商品房销售累计231亿平米。供给～=需求。
Why Chinese property in trouble: 1987-2021 urban pop +625m x 37sqm/p ~=230m sqm; home sales = 231m sqm
35
黄奇帆与王波明谈中国房地产见顶。我的分析更具体。他混淆了几个指标，但瑕不掩瑜。
Celebrity politician Huang Qifan discussed Chinese property with Caijing Chief Editor Wang Boming. Aging pop, peaking urbanization & living space, large inventory & peak price all spell big trouble.
36
中国美债持仓跌破一万亿美元。2010年六月持仓首次突破一万亿，2013年11月达到高点一万三千亿后开始持续减仓。
中美脱钩进行时。
China’s holding of US treasury fell below $1tn for the 1st time since Jun/2010. China’s been slowly reducing US treasury since Nov/2013.
Decoupling.
39
Whichever industry Tsinghua/PKU grads chose to go, the industry’d die:
- 2005 P&G/Unilever: Foreign Co. Peak
- 2008 Banks/Mobile: State Limit Salary
- 2015 Internet: Bubble Burst
- 2019 Teaching in Shenzhen: SZ Cut Teacher Salary
- 2020 Civil Servant: Local Gov Broke
Now what?
40
一些无法翻译的中文：复盘、赋能、赛道、组合拳、引爆点、生命周期、垂直领域 … 杀了我吧。
任何打着这些官腔的会议，都是浪费时间大会。在任何报告里，只要出现这些陈词滥调，请马上删除扔进垃圾回收。
41
中央、地方财政收入暴降近历史最低。以前可以靠卖地，这次只能靠发债了。连明年的债都要提前到今年发。
China central/local gov revenue growth collapsed to historical low. It used to be able to survive via land sales, now only bond sales. Even bond quota next yr has been brought fwd.
42
中外基金一起加仓：白酒、非白酒、食品加工。加仓老旧经济，看似做多，实是走在老路上，对于新的增长毫无信心，不得不抽烟喝酒。
这叫恶意做多？
Funds adding Baijiu & liquor, food & staples, cyclicals. Long on old & sick econ indeed hints at diffidence on fwd growth. NOT Bullish at all.
43
房地产内部会议纪要
Internal Property Meeting Summary:
- 300m sq construction halt, T-2 cities worst; local gov can’t handle;
- Rumored property fund of ¥200-300bn not enough; few shanty towns left to redevelop;
- Sales -20%, starts -30%, investment -10%: Existing supply surging
44
“The young’d love everything, the old’d give it all up. Everyone’s in a lifelong pursuit of a soulmate, only to find it in oneself.
The kindhearted is late bloomer, bent by the wicked, initiated yet unchanged & still searching same … eventually end up alone”.
— Mo Yan
45
“土地国有制是一切社会问题的根源，包括腐败、社会不平等”。许成钢，2013
然而，土地国有类似于自古以来的”盐铁专营”，土地税、转让金“取之于无形，使人不怒”，是中国社会“超稳定结构”的支柱之一。
“State ownership of land is the root of all society ills.” — Xu Chenggang, 2013
46
This is Old Guangzhou, or Canton in 1966, just before Cultural Revolution, when streets were cleaner than people’s clothes, & “the East Was Red” but not by the sun.
Guangzhou was the only window for foreign trade before “Reform & Open” in 1978. It’s a story of rags-to-riches.
47
Nowadays researching in China is like shouting underwater — it’s all muffled.
But the longer the voices are suppressed under water, the more fierce the struggle will be, and the bigger the stir later.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
48
49
还没打就见血了。4400个股票受伤。
Chinese stocks collapsed in the shadow of a looming conflict. 4400 of 4800 stocks hurt.
50
Right now, Taiwan 101 Tower lights up to welcome #Pelosi. Pelosi’s puts on Taiwan semiconductor are in combat readiness.
Economist of the Year - Asian Private Banker; FT Book of 2020; No.1 Strategist/Economist - AsiaMoney. “The man who called China’s boom & bust” - Bloomberg