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2022.10.10 研究报告：《拯救港股》中文版
“港股严重地、疯狂地超卖。不管怎样，这里还是应该有一个交易机会，这是一曲孤勇者的赞歌。”（重发。第一次用这个软件，手生） growinvestment.group/2022/10/10/%e6…
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最近两天，三篇重要的文章：
1）人民日报《增强对当前疫情防控政策的信心和耐心》;
2）人民日报《“动态清零”可持续而且必须坚持》;
3）新华社《增强定力耐力疫情防控绝不能“躺平”》。
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US semi ban on China ripping the roots of China’s semi industry. US Engineers have to choose between working in China and giving up US citizenship.
All chips with advanced US tech banned. KLA, Lam & $AMA#AMAT pulling US staffs out. Big foundry capex in 2023 clipped.
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ASML stops its US employees from providing service to China, effective immediately.
Dr. Yu CAO is a graduate of University of Science & Technology of China and later Caltech PhD; worked at Alibaba US before joining ASML in 2015.
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“We’re not afraid of COVID, but we’re afraid of disobedience.”
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At the keynote speech of the 20th Congress, most frequently used words were “people 人民/development 发展/safety 安全”. “Struggle 斗争/tech科技” were used a lot more than 19th Congress. But almost no mention about “market 市场”.
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Ex-Premier Wen Jiabao: the progress of human society is via debates among diff. schools of thoughts … For China to have a truly bright future, we must promote independent & critical thinking… & create a free academic environment for people to seek the truth & meaning of life.
108
The 20th Congress raised a new term “to regulate the mechanism of wealth accumulation”.
Today, a labor researcher said “wealth income growth can’t be multiple times of labor income growth .. excess wealth should be taxed/regulated”.
Chinese market freaked out. Moutai tanked.
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“Complete Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation”, “Socialist Market Economy”, “Common Prosperity” & “Dual Circulation” are formally written into the revised CCP Party Constitution.
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给艺考生们说一下目前就业趋势：
表演--密室剧本/NPC；
播音--带货主播；
声乐--教小孩儿；
器乐--教小孩儿；
舞蹈--教小孩儿；
编导--给上面五个拍抖音。
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Today’s global market map: what’s going on in China?
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Yicai editorial: after 20th Congress investors should be prepared for revaluation of property; policy shouldn’t be overly stimulative to send wrong bullish signal. Or long-term growth potential will suffer.
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Ex President Hu Jintao played ping-pong with a few Chinese athletes and beat them hands down.
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COVID Outbreak In Zhengzhou, Henan. Tens of thousands Foxconn workers walking out of factory lockdown, going home bare foot on the Central Plain’s great earth. 在中原的大地上默默行走着…
2022 hasn’t been kind to Henan’s people. Hope they get home safe.
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Heard that “Reopening Committee” has been formed & led by Wang Huning, Politburo Standing Member. The Committee is reviewing COVID data from US/HK/SG to assess various reopening scenarios, target 03/2023 reopen.
HK finally rebounded 3%, A-shares +1%. $EWH#EWHE#KWEBI#FXIJ#PGJhref="https://t.co/ZgN2EYqUzH" target="_blank" rel="noopener">twitter.com/HAOHONG_CFA/st…
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统一回复喷子：
- 谁都没有说过今天就放开“清零”。今天是一个例会。市场预期明年三月两会以后，并逐步动态调整。喷子想多了。
- 例会与二十大一致，但细节有改变（附图）如，点名北京弹窗。
- 继续观察舆论导向、疫苗药品进口和老年人接种情况。并记着中国哲学的渐进主义。西方重启也没有一夜开放。
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一年前写的预测2022《夕惕若厉》，关于2022年最差情景，经典的滞涨，股债双杀，上证略低于3000点。不幸，一语成谶。
很快，又要到预测2023的时刻了。
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Shenzhen invites bids to build phase 4 of personal tax platform, focusing on high-networth individuals, incl. stock ownership transfer, non-cash investment, ESOP/stock dividend tax installments etc.
Common prosperity is coming .. to a city near you. There’s no place to hide.
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CCTV poster concedes pets don’t transmit COVID, calling for kindness towards our animal friends & respect for life. A u-turn. Those atrocious videos of “big white” going into homes to kill pets alive still haunting us.
Again, monitor propaganda change for gradual COVID-0 exit.
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20条 “20 measures” cut foreign quarantine to 5+3, cancel Int’l flights circuit breaker, no indiscriminate lockdown, end unnecessary COVID test, no tracing 2ndary close contact, free people stuck in COVID zone etc.
My “billion-dollar tweet” 2wks ago all turned true. HK +8%!
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“Don’t be afraid of COVID. It’s just a flu.” — scene at a makeshift hospital. Propaganda tone is changing.
Economist of the Year - Asian Private Banker; FT Book of 2020; No.1 Strategist/Economist - AsiaMoney. “The man who called China’s boom & bust” - Bloomberg