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大陆反制，禁止进口上百种台湾农产品/食品；但这些只占台湾出口大陆1%。
台湾重要出口是IC集成电路等电子产品，占80%。中国每年IC进口2.4万亿美元，自足率<20%，并两倍于原油1.2万亿。
台积电中国总比约10%，硅片大从日本进口；中芯28纳米以下高端芯片<20%，差距很大，也是美国封锁芯片技术的原因。
52
1997, Clinton & Jiang Zemin’s joint press conference. Then Jiang invited Clinton to dine at the Great Hall of People, & conducted the orchestra together. Jiang even chitchatted with Hilary a little.
The good old days, when China’s charm offensive was at its best.
53
一些你应该知道的马甲：
玉渊谭天：央视新闻
陶然笔记：经济日报
朝阳少侠：外交部
有理儿有面：政法委
侠客岛：人民日报/海外版
补壹刀：人民日报社/环球网
枢密院十号：人民日报社/环球网
牛弹琴：新华社
长安街知事：北京日报
青蜂侠：中国青年网
市说新语：国家市场监督管理局
(请找一下图中🦓)
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Hainan Lockdown, the mess at Santa Airport. Authority apologized, promised free room & board, but the crowd chanted: WE WANNA GO HOME.
Nothing Is Free Without Freedom.
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China’s best, prob world’s best-performing fund: up 43x in < 2 years with very little drawdowns; YTD 26x. Baffling.
中国最牛基金，也可能是全世界最牛：不到两年翻43倍，很少回撤；今年来26倍。百思不解。
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关于长期潜在增长率。
彭博专访链接：bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
58
China July Total Social Financing Collapse from ¥5.17tn to ¥0.75tn; Credit from ¥2.81tn to ¥0.679tn; loan growth near all time low.
NO 2H LIQUIDITY FLOODING.
七月社融崩塌：¥5.17万亿跌至¥7500亿；信贷¥2.81万亿跌至¥7500亿；贷款增速近历史最低。
坚持不搞大水漫灌、不刺激房地产。
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China Loan Demand Collapsing. Not Seen Since Burst of 2015 Bubble.
中国贷款需求崩塌。2015年泡沫破灭以来未见。
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系列推：中国出口有多强？
1/N）最近很多人质疑中国出口的真实情况。在投资、消费、地方财政收入一片惨淡的情况下，出口一枝独秀，增速大超预期，顺差历史新高，并与PMI出口新订单萎缩的情况背离。
二季度GDP增长0.4%，出口拉动了1%。换而言之，没有出口，GDP就萎缩了。
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China Youth Unemployment at ALL TIME HIGH: ~20%.
中国青年失业率有史以来最高，近20%。
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“Officers who fail to buy properties within specified time will be transferred to other work units. In the future, property buying will be part of your performance measures.”
Property Stimulus is here.
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蔡洪平与王波明聊中国半导体实际情况：只能做>28纳米；光刻机零件受制；没有国际合作，零机会赶上，且越追越远。
Cai Hongping discussed China’s semi: can only do >28nm; US bans endanger key parts of lithograph; w/o global co-op, China has 0 chance to catch up, lagging further behind.
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- 二季度，9城甲级写字楼空置率>30%，天津最高近50%，去化压力大；
- 8城处于20%～30%；
- 北上广在20%以内。
Office building vacancy rate% in 40 cities:
- 9 cities vacancy >30%, Tianjin highest at ~50%;
- 8 cities 20-30%;
- T-1 cities <20%.
Too many offices, too few businesses.
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“买了三套买四套”
This has gone viral on Chinese internet.
“I call on every comrade to take the lead to buy a property.
If you are on your 1st property, then buy a 2nd one; if on 2nd, then buy a 3rd; already on 3rd? There’s always room for the 4th.”
Now let the buying begin.
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为什么救中国房地产那么难。
This explains why it’s so hard to save Chinese property.
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房地产对GDP增长贡献的占比全面崩塌。
Chinese property contribution to GDP growth has absolutely collapsed.
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37个主要城市，只有3个土地相关的财政收入占比低于50%。今年来，所有省份财政入不敷出，但东部四个经济大省要完成财政上缴任务。
Only 3/37 major cities have <50% fiscal income from land; 13 cities >100%. YTD all provinces’ fiscal income < exp, but 4 asked to pay up dues to the state.
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四川限电事件专家会议
Expert Notes on Electricity Rationing in Sichuan:
- abnormal heat once in decades, demand gap >1/4 ann. usage;
- rationing will be the “new normal”;
- industrial prod halted in all cities but 2;
- coal power won’t do or change 14th 5-Yr-Plan on energy.
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1966.08.18, Today 56 years ago, Chairman Mao greeting the Little Red Guards for the first time on Tiananmen Square, with then Premier Zhou Enlai, Jiang Qing, Lin Biao.
The onset of Cultural Revolution.
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Lee Kuan Yew on China (1993):
“We want peaceful rising. But what about the next generation? If they believe the imperialists rip-off China, they’ll become belligerent..
Let next gen appreciate isolation & ideological mistakes’re costly .. Or China’d cut off & turn chauvinist.”
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去年九月，我与敦和资管首席执行官张志洲先生讨论，中国市场里细分行业龙头的机会，以及为什么港股这么便宜，却还是没有人买（2/2）
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互联网创业行业黑话：
智慧城市：路口装摄像头
人工智能：自动回复
大数据分析：收集用户隐私
社区团购：网上买菜，明天小卖部自提
下半场：快不行了
共享经济：分时租赁
连续创业：多次创业失败
联合创始人：老员工
颠覆式创新：捣乱
赋能：拉你一把
发力：烧钱
闭环：自产自销
孵化器：办公室是租的
Economist of the Year - Asian Private Banker; FT Book of 2020; No.1 Strategist/Economist - AsiaMoney. “The man who called China’s boom & bust” - Bloomberg