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Huawei’s Ren Zhengfei:
1. Global recession, no recovery in next 3-5yrs. NO ONE IS SPARED;
2. Focus on cash/profit, not sales. On life support in 2023/24, SURVIVAL UNSURE; STOP EMPTY TALKS;
3. KILL unprofitable units; FEEL THE CHILL
I thought we’re NOT allowed to be bearish?
77
温铁军：80年代北朝鲜比中国发达，农业现代化、人均GDP比中国高。但快速城镇化使农业人口锐减，俄油断掉后农业断粮，饥荒衰退。
Wen Tiejun, renowned agri-economist: North Korea agri production/GDP per cap > China in 1980s; then Russia oil supply stopped — agri failed — tailspin.
78
当前青年人的矛盾:
1000万毕业生，多了；
1000万新生儿，少了；
65岁退休，早了；
35岁就业，老了；
60岁三胎，还年轻！
Quandaries for the youth:
10m graduates’re too many,
10m newborns too few.
At 65 too young to retire,
at 35 too old to be employed.
60’s ripe to have your 3rd kid.
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1/N）系列推：中国房价下跌会引起金融危机吗？
2021底个人房贷¥38.3万亿，一年新增¥3.8万亿；商品房销售¥16万亿，房贷占约25%。调查显示：买房平均首付50%；二套房首付40-60%。房贷¥38.3万亿 vs 总房地产敞口¥62万亿。
因首付高，房价下跌*应该难直接*导致金融危机。
80
六月新冠死亡人数0，流感4。一个死亡率最低的传染病却消耗着大量的医疗资源。
China recorded 0 death from COVID in June, but 4 death from flu. A disease with 0 death rate consumes bulk of healthcare resources.
81
互联网创业行业黑话：
智慧城市：路口装摄像头
人工智能：自动回复
大数据分析：收集用户隐私
社区团购：网上买菜，明天小卖部自提
下半场：快不行了
共享经济：分时租赁
连续创业：多次创业失败
联合创始人：老员工
颠覆式创新：捣乱
赋能：拉你一把
发力：烧钱
闭环：自产自销
孵化器：办公室是租的
82
去年九月，我与敦和资管首席执行官张志洲先生讨论，中国市场里细分行业龙头的机会，以及为什么港股这么便宜，却还是没有人买（2/2）
84
Lee Kuan Yew on China (1993):
“We want peaceful rising. But what about the next generation? If they believe the imperialists rip-off China, they’ll become belligerent..
Let next gen appreciate isolation & ideological mistakes’re costly .. Or China’d cut off & turn chauvinist.”
85
1966.08.18, Today 56 years ago, Chairman Mao greeting the Little Red Guards for the first time on Tiananmen Square, with then Premier Zhou Enlai, Jiang Qing, Lin Biao.
The onset of Cultural Revolution.
86
四川限电事件专家会议
Expert Notes on Electricity Rationing in Sichuan:
- abnormal heat once in decades, demand gap >1/4 ann. usage;
- rationing will be the “new normal”;
- industrial prod halted in all cities but 2;
- coal power won’t do or change 14th 5-Yr-Plan on energy.
87
37个主要城市，只有3个土地相关的财政收入占比低于50%。今年来，所有省份财政入不敷出，但东部四个经济大省要完成财政上缴任务。
Only 3/37 major cities have <50% fiscal income from land; 13 cities >100%. YTD all provinces’ fiscal income < exp, but 4 asked to pay up dues to the state.
88
房地产对GDP增长贡献的占比全面崩塌。
Chinese property contribution to GDP growth has absolutely collapsed.
89
为什么救中国房地产那么难。
This explains why it’s so hard to save Chinese property.
90
“买了三套买四套”
This has gone viral on Chinese internet.
“I call on every comrade to take the lead to buy a property.
If you are on your 1st property, then buy a 2nd one; if on 2nd, then buy a 3rd; already on 3rd? There’s always room for the 4th.”
Now let the buying begin.
91
- 二季度，9城甲级写字楼空置率>30%，天津最高近50%，去化压力大；
- 8城处于20%～30%；
- 北上广在20%以内。
Office building vacancy rate% in 40 cities:
- 9 cities vacancy >30%, Tianjin highest at ~50%;
- 8 cities 20-30%;
- T-1 cities <20%.
Too many offices, too few businesses.
92
蔡洪平与王波明聊中国半导体实际情况：只能做>28纳米；光刻机零件受制；没有国际合作，零机会赶上，且越追越远。
Cai Hongping discussed China’s semi: can only do >28nm; US bans endanger key parts of lithograph; w/o global co-op, China has 0 chance to catch up, lagging further behind.
93
“Officers who fail to buy properties within specified time will be transferred to other work units. In the future, property buying will be part of your performance measures.”
Property Stimulus is here.
94
China Youth Unemployment at ALL TIME HIGH: ~20%.
中国青年失业率有史以来最高，近20%。
95
系列推：中国出口有多强？
1/N）最近很多人质疑中国出口的真实情况。在投资、消费、地方财政收入一片惨淡的情况下，出口一枝独秀，增速大超预期，顺差历史新高，并与PMI出口新订单萎缩的情况背离。
二季度GDP增长0.4%，出口拉动了1%。换而言之，没有出口，GDP就萎缩了。
97
China Loan Demand Collapsing. Not Seen Since Burst of 2015 Bubble.
中国贷款需求崩塌。2015年泡沫破灭以来未见。
98
China July Total Social Financing Collapse from ¥5.17tn to ¥0.75tn; Credit from ¥2.81tn to ¥0.679tn; loan growth near all time low.
NO 2H LIQUIDITY FLOODING.
七月社融崩塌：¥5.17万亿跌至¥7500亿；信贷¥2.81万亿跌至¥7500亿；贷款增速近历史最低。
坚持不搞大水漫灌、不刺激房地产。
100
关于长期潜在增长率。
彭博专访链接：bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Economist of the Year - Asian Private Banker; FT Book of 2020; No.1 Strategist/Economist - AsiaMoney. “The man who called China’s boom & bust” - Bloomberg