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China’s best, prob world’s best-performing fund: up 43x in < 2 years with very little drawdowns; YTD 26x. Baffling.
中国最牛基金，也可能是全世界最牛：不到两年翻43倍，很少回撤；今年来26倍。百思不解。
102
Hainan Lockdown, the mess at Santa Airport. Authority apologized, promised free room & board, but the crowd chanted: WE WANNA GO HOME.
Nothing Is Free Without Freedom.
103
一些你应该知道的马甲：
玉渊谭天：央视新闻
陶然笔记：经济日报
朝阳少侠：外交部
有理儿有面：政法委
侠客岛：人民日报/海外版
补壹刀：人民日报社/环球网
枢密院十号：人民日报社/环球网
牛弹琴：新华社
长安街知事：北京日报
青蜂侠：中国青年网
市说新语：国家市场监督管理局
(请找一下图中🦓)
104
1997, Clinton & Jiang Zemin’s joint press conference. Then Jiang invited Clinton to dine at the Great Hall of People, & conducted the orchestra together. Jiang even chitchatted with Hilary a little.
The good old days, when China’s charm offensive was at its best.
105
大陆反制，禁止进口上百种台湾农产品/食品；但这些只占台湾出口大陆1%。
台湾重要出口是IC集成电路等电子产品，占80%。中国每年IC进口2.4万亿美元，自足率<20%，并两倍于原油1.2万亿。
台积电中国总比约10%，硅片大从日本进口；中芯28纳米以下高端芯片<20%，差距很大，也是美国封锁芯片技术的原因。
106
Right now, Taiwan 101 Tower lights up to welcome #Pelosi. Pelosi’s puts on Taiwan semiconductor are in combat readiness.
107
还没打就见血了。4400个股票受伤。
Chinese stocks collapsed in the shadow of a looming conflict. 4400 of 4800 stocks hurt.
108
109
Nowadays researching in China is like shouting underwater — it’s all muffled.
But the longer the voices are suppressed under water, the more fierce the struggle will be, and the bigger the stir later.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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This is Old Guangzhou, or Canton in 1966, just before Cultural Revolution, when streets were cleaner than people’s clothes, & “the East Was Red” but not by the sun.
Guangzhou was the only window for foreign trade before “Reform & Open” in 1978. It’s a story of rags-to-riches.
111
“土地国有制是一切社会问题的根源，包括腐败、社会不平等”。许成钢，2013
然而，土地国有类似于自古以来的”盐铁专营”，土地税、转让金“取之于无形，使人不怒”，是中国社会“超稳定结构”的支柱之一。
“State ownership of land is the root of all society ills.” — Xu Chenggang, 2013
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“The young’d love everything, the old’d give it all up. Everyone’s in a lifelong pursuit of a soulmate, only to find it in oneself.
The kindhearted is late bloomer, bent by the wicked, initiated yet unchanged & still searching same … eventually end up alone”.
— Mo Yan
113
房地产内部会议纪要
Internal Property Meeting Summary:
- 300m sq construction halt, T-2 cities worst; local gov can’t handle;
- Rumored property fund of ¥200-300bn not enough; few shanty towns left to redevelop;
- Sales -20%, starts -30%, investment -10%: Existing supply surging
114
中外基金一起加仓：白酒、非白酒、食品加工。加仓老旧经济，看似做多，实是走在老路上，对于新的增长毫无信心，不得不抽烟喝酒。
这叫恶意做多？
Funds adding Baijiu & liquor, food & staples, cyclicals. Long on old & sick econ indeed hints at diffidence on fwd growth. NOT Bullish at all.
115
中央、地方财政收入暴降近历史最低。以前可以靠卖地，这次只能靠发债了。连明年的债都要提前到今年发。
China central/local gov revenue growth collapsed to historical low. It used to be able to survive via land sales, now only bond sales. Even bond quota next yr has been brought fwd.
116
一些无法翻译的中文：复盘、赋能、赛道、组合拳、引爆点、生命周期、垂直领域 … 杀了我吧。
任何打着这些官腔的会议，都是浪费时间大会。在任何报告里，只要出现这些陈词滥调，请马上删除扔进垃圾回收。
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Whichever industry Tsinghua/PKU grads chose to go, the industry’d die:
- 2005 P&G/Unilever: Foreign Co. Peak
- 2008 Banks/Mobile: State Limit Salary
- 2015 Internet: Bubble Burst
- 2019 Teaching in Shenzhen: SZ Cut Teacher Salary
- 2020 Civil Servant: Local Gov Broke
Now what?
120
中国美债持仓跌破一万亿美元。2010年六月持仓首次突破一万亿，2013年11月达到高点一万三千亿后开始持续减仓。
中美脱钩进行时。
China’s holding of US treasury fell below $1tn for the 1st time since Jun/2010. China’s been slowly reducing US treasury since Nov/2013.
Decoupling.
121
黄奇帆与王波明谈中国房地产见顶。我的分析更具体。他混淆了几个指标，但瑕不掩瑜。
Celebrity politician Huang Qifan discussed Chinese property with Caijing Chief Editor Wang Boming. Aging pop, peaking urbanization & living space, large inventory & peak price all spell big trouble.
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1/N：为什么中国房地产这两年问题这么多？1987-2021，中国城镇人口从2.75亿到9亿，新增6.25亿人口 x 35-40平米/人=220-250亿平米；同期，中国商品房销售累计231亿平米。供给～=需求。
Why Chinese property in trouble: 1987-2021 urban pop +625m x 37sqm/p ~=230m sqm; home sales = 231m sqm
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青年失业率/Youth unemployment
中国 China 🇨🇳：19.3%；
美国 US 🇺🇸 ：14.9%；
欧盟 EU🇪🇺：13.3%；
日本 JP🇯🇵：3.89%。
中国青年失业率有数据以来最高。China youth unemployment highest in data history.
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鲁迅：“今春的两种感想” —《集外集拾遗》1932
“When in China, … if you want to talk about the Chinese society, about oppressor & the oppressed — forget it. But if your topic ventures out of China, to Paris & London, to the moon & beyond, then anything goes.”
— Lu Xun, 1932
Economist of the Year - Asian Private Banker; FT Book of 2020; No.1 Strategist/Economist - AsiaMoney. “The man who called China’s boom & bust” - Bloomberg