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越南经典电影《常在我心中》
Vietnamese theatre classic “Always on My Mind”.
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Surreal images from James Web. It took over 20 years, $10bn to construct. But China blows that much on daily COVID tests every 3 days.
韦伯望远镜从时间的尽头传来宇宙的秘密。韦伯的建造花了二十多年，逾100亿美元。却只够中国全民做三次核酸。
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全国已知烂尾楼名单更新到逾百。*假设6%在建烂尾* x 100亿平米在建=6亿平 x ¥1万/平=¥6万亿；1/3的¥18万亿年销量、平均首付60%=¥2-3万亿贷款，～8%的¥39万亿存量房贷；100平/套=600万套住宅 x 户均3人=～2千万受灾群众。
*6%是受灾估算关键假设。烂尾断供名单星火燎原。闻深圳13万/平网红盘也断供了。
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静待潮水来了解套。看看人家海狮：心态最重要，不要忘记微笑。
“Waiting for a rising tide to lift my boat. Meanwhile, smile.” — A stranded seal.
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最烦这些研究报告的套话（括号解毒）
- 风物长宜/可期/静待（现在没戏）
- 估值吸引（其它方面没戏）
- 四轮驱动（少一个轮子就没戏）
- 深挖个股（行业没戏）
- 不确定中找确定（找免费午餐=全面没戏）
- 区间震荡（这是真的不知道）
当然，分析师也无奈。鱼缸里的鱼，只知道鱼缸里的天地。
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这时在斯里兰卡，经济危机演变成政治危机。现代货币理论崩于眼前。
眼见他楼塌了。
Right now in Sri Lanka, economic crisis evolving into political crisis. Collapse of MMT right before our eyes.
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安倍最后的午餐。人生由命非由他，有酒不飲奈若何。
Abe’s last lunch. Such is life.
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彭博微信公众号因举报被封。中国市场越发闭塞误导，定价失效。“稳定”压抑一切、无论对错，但明斯基终图穷匕见。
Bloomberg WeChat account suspended ‘cos snitchers. “Back to the USSR”. Mainland market increasingly misinformed & mispriced. Stability veils Minsky moment.
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“If I weren’t Chinese, I’d be more open & less ambivalent. I’d gloat, as China’s vast & deprived population tormented & hated — like ants, dying trying. It’s a joke.
Pity I’m Chinese, born in desperate struggles against fate. I feel love, hate & sorry for her.” — Hu Xijin, 2012
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电池技术傻瓜指南。很多人说电池技术是新能源汽车的核心。看完了这个小视频，觉得有点内个 …
Battery technology made easy. I was told that battery’s essential to new-energy cars. Sounds like a scam after this clip.
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30年前，葛优讲解如何写出更好的文章。中国情景喜剧首秀即天花板。文字是用来解放思想的，而非禁锢。
In China’s 1st sitcom 30 yrs ago, Ge You explained writing for the people, not dictating to them. Chinese sitcom peaked at debut. Words are to set the mind free, not to confine it.
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曾经的期货程序化交易高手，两千多万的盘子，现在过着10块钱一天的游荡生活。有人会觉得他很落魄，但他却活出了自我、开心知足。
桃李春风一杯酒，江湖夜雨十年灯。
He’s once a program futures trader with positions >¥20m, now on ¥10/day in abject poverty. But he did it his way & happy.
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美国消费者信心跌至衰退、欧债危机水平；中国消费者信心历史上最深最快地下跌。这是全球最大的两个经济体，但专家假装没事。
衰退不可避免，或我们已在衰退中。
China & US confidence epic plunged to crisis level. Recession is doomed, or we’re already in one, but pundits blind & deaf.
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1/🧵China income data reveal new reality of “Common Prosperity”:
- Of 1,400m people, 964m <¥2k/month ($300), 547m < ¥1k ($150), only 70m people pay tax at min taxable income ¥5k/month ($770);
- ¥18k p.a. (56th %) x 2.62 pp/Household = ¥47k/HH = $7,255/HH (4th % US HH income).
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Allen Zhu of GSR Ventures said China to reopen over 2023: 1st, T-1 cities ex BJ; then large cities; then all before end 2023. If so, 1.5 years to endure. “Startups must plan cash-flow accordingly”.
朱啸虎称全境开放还要等一年半。苦俟河清，人、生意、现金流都要熬过去。
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Explosions at Sinopec Shanghai Petrochem. Plant operating at 1/20 designed load cos weak demand since March. Fire & smoke billowing into sky, inferno erupting. Pray safe.
上海石化因需求不足超低负荷运行而爆炸，最低时1/20设计负荷。远处可见，滚滚浓烟逐日。祈祷平安。
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China consumer confidence plunged most ever since 1992, almost fell through the chart. Yet industrial output resilient. They used to be highly correlated. Odd.
中国消费者信心暴跌程度30年历史之最，快跌穿图底了。但工业产出却坚韧超预期。这些曾是高度相关的数据。为什么？
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长文讨论：中国市场的选择 — 是长期模式转变，还是短期老路一条。如何才能做到，目无全牛，而心中有牛？
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稳住经济大盘会议感想：1）讨论了经济面临的下行压力，“努力确保二季度经济正增长”。特别提到五月克强指数运输量、贷款、用电量为负，失业率历史次高，超千万高校毕业生。08年GDP<3，但没有失业，现在情况不一样。“稳增长、稳就业、稳物价”，前两个目标面临挑战（1/N）
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Investors in Evergrande wealth mgmt demanding repayment. An emergency meeting was hosted this weekend but no one’s willing to accept the proposal that basically attempted to delay payments. The Corp has 240bn in ST debt but only 86bn cash/quasi. Stock -7%.
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Wuhan virus locked down. Nothing in or out.
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HK Chief Executive Carrie Lam boarded flight to Beijing for the national day ceremony, shaking hands and taking selfie with fellow passengers. She’s flying with Air China.
Economist of the Year - Asian Private Banker; FT Book of 2020; No.1 Strategist/Economist - AsiaMoney. “The man who called China’s boom & bust” - Bloomberg