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“I Hope Happy Thanksgiving Day, Everybody!”
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感恩的赠礼：在未来两天里，第一位和最后一位点赞或转发的朋友、以及之间的随机随缘选择的八位朋友，我将赠予我的《预测》思睿订制版一本，并亲笔签名。(由于快递限制，暂时只能寄往国内的读者朋友。)
感谢您一直以来的支持和关注🙏
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“当你深入了解这块土地上的人们时，你会发现，他们的思想，配得上他们所受的苦难。” -- 巴金
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【2022-11-21 展望2023｜或跃在渊】短周期接近底部，但房地产复苏非一日之功。上证3-3,500，恒指16-23,000。出口中周期继续下行，与共识所盼之“大牛市”相悖。
任尔东西南北风，无论我们在2022年遭遇了多少暗流险滩，眼下是时候重振旗鼓，举步向前了。 growinvestment.group/2022/11/21/%e6…
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Traffic jam in Beijing. Sign of Reopening.
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“Don’t be afraid of COVID. It’s just a flu.” — scene at a makeshift hospital. Propaganda tone is changing.
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20条 “20 measures” cut foreign quarantine to 5+3, cancel Int’l flights circuit breaker, no indiscriminate lockdown, end unnecessary COVID test, no tracing 2ndary close contact, free people stuck in COVID zone etc.
My “billion-dollar tweet” 2wks ago all turned true. HK +8%!
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CCTV poster concedes pets don’t transmit COVID, calling for kindness towards our animal friends & respect for life. A u-turn. Those atrocious videos of “big white” going into homes to kill pets alive still haunting us.
Again, monitor propaganda change for gradual COVID-0 exit.
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Shenzhen invites bids to build phase 4 of personal tax platform, focusing on high-networth individuals, incl. stock ownership transfer, non-cash investment, ESOP/stock dividend tax installments etc.
Common prosperity is coming .. to a city near you. There’s no place to hide.
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一年前写的预测2022《夕惕若厉》，关于2022年最差情景，经典的滞涨，股债双杀，上证略低于3000点。不幸，一语成谶。
很快，又要到预测2023的时刻了。
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统一回复喷子：
- 谁都没有说过今天就放开“清零”。今天是一个例会。市场预期明年三月两会以后，并逐步动态调整。喷子想多了。
- 例会与二十大一致，但细节有改变（附图）如，点名北京弹窗。
- 继续观察舆论导向、疫苗药品进口和老年人接种情况。并记着中国哲学的渐进主义。西方重启也没有一夜开放。
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Heard that “Reopening Committee” has been formed & led by Wang Huning, Politburo Standing Member. The Committee is reviewing COVID data from US/HK/SG to assess various reopening scenarios, target 03/2023 reopen.
HK finally rebounded 3%, A-shares +1%. $EWH#EWHE#KWEBI#FXIJ#PGJhref="https://t.co/ZgN2EYqUzH" target="_blank" rel="noopener">twitter.com/HAOHONG_CFA/st…
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COVID Outbreak In Zhengzhou, Henan. Tens of thousands Foxconn workers walking out of factory lockdown, going home bare foot on the Central Plain’s great earth. 在中原的大地上默默行走着…
2022 hasn’t been kind to Henan’s people. Hope they get home safe.
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Ex President Hu Jintao played ping-pong with a few Chinese athletes and beat them hands down.
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Yicai editorial: after 20th Congress investors should be prepared for revaluation of property; policy shouldn’t be overly stimulative to send wrong bullish signal. Or long-term growth potential will suffer.
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Today’s global market map: what’s going on in China?
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给艺考生们说一下目前就业趋势：
表演--密室剧本/NPC；
播音--带货主播；
声乐--教小孩儿；
器乐--教小孩儿；
舞蹈--教小孩儿；
编导--给上面五个拍抖音。
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“Complete Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation”, “Socialist Market Economy”, “Common Prosperity” & “Dual Circulation” are formally written into the revised CCP Party Constitution.
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The 20th Congress raised a new term “to regulate the mechanism of wealth accumulation”.
Today, a labor researcher said “wealth income growth can’t be multiple times of labor income growth .. excess wealth should be taxed/regulated”.
Chinese market freaked out. Moutai tanked.
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Ex-Premier Wen Jiabao: the progress of human society is via debates among diff. schools of thoughts … For China to have a truly bright future, we must promote independent & critical thinking… & create a free academic environment for people to seek the truth & meaning of life.
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At the keynote speech of the 20th Congress, most frequently used words were “people 人民/development 发展/safety 安全”. “Struggle 斗争/tech科技” were used a lot more than 19th Congress. But almost no mention about “market 市场”.
Economist of the Year - Asian Private Banker; FT Book of 2020; No.1 Strategist/Economist - AsiaMoney. “The man who called China’s boom & bust” - Bloomberg