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中央、地方财政收入暴降近历史最低。以前可以靠卖地，这次只能靠发债了。连明年的债都要提前到今年发。
China central/local gov revenue growth collapsed to historical low. It used to be able to survive via land sales, now only bond sales. Even bond quota next yr has been brought fwd.
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中国房地产三大未解之谜：
1）房价这么高，为什么还在买？
2）住房拥有率这么高，谁还在买？
3）房价、住房拥有率这么高，为什么泡沫还不破灭？
3 unsolved mysteries of Chinese Property:
1) price so high why still buying?
2) ownership so high who still buying?
3) 1&2 but no bubble burst?
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- 二季度，9城甲级写字楼空置率>30%，天津最高近50%，去化压力大；
- 8城处于20%～30%；
- 北上广在20%以内。
Office building vacancy rate% in 40 cities:
- 9 cities vacancy >30%, Tianjin highest at ~50%;
- 8 cities 20-30%;
- T-1 cities <20%.
Too many offices, too few businesses.
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系列推：中国出口有多强？
1/N）最近很多人质疑中国出口的真实情况。在投资、消费、地方财政收入一片惨淡的情况下，出口一枝独秀，增速大超预期，顺差历史新高，并与PMI出口新订单萎缩的情况背离。
二季度GDP增长0.4%，出口拉动了1%。换而言之，没有出口，GDP就萎缩了。
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中国美债持仓跌破一万亿美元。2010年六月持仓首次突破一万亿，2013年11月达到高点一万三千亿后开始持续减仓。
中美脱钩进行时。
China’s holding of US treasury fell below $1tn for the 1st time since Jun/2010. China’s been slowly reducing US treasury since Nov/2013.
Decoupling.
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ASML stops its US employees from providing service to China, effective immediately.
Dr. Yu CAO is a graduate of University of Science & Technology of China and later Caltech PhD; worked at Alibaba US before joining ASML in 2015.
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China’s best, prob world’s best-performing fund: up 43x in < 2 years with very little drawdowns; YTD 26x. Baffling.
中国最牛基金，也可能是全世界最牛：不到两年翻43倍，很少回撤；今年来26倍。百思不解。
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COVID PCR testing companies reporting soaring earnings growth YTD, one topping the chart with 32,000% growth, followed by another with 6,800%!
And there’s a person opening 16 PCR testing co, most after Shanghai lockdown in April.
This is probably the only growth industry now.
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房地产对GDP增长贡献的占比全面崩塌。
Chinese property contribution to GDP growth has absolutely collapsed.
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“Complete Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation”, “Socialist Market Economy”, “Common Prosperity” & “Dual Circulation” are formally written into the revised CCP Party Constitution.
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鲁迅：“今春的两种感想” —《集外集拾遗》1932
“When in China, … if you want to talk about the Chinese society, about oppressor & the oppressed — forget it. But if your topic ventures out of China, to Paris & London, to the moon & beyond, then anything goes.”
— Lu Xun, 1932
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温铁军：80年代北朝鲜比中国发达，农业现代化、人均GDP比中国高。但快速城镇化使农业人口锐减，俄油断掉后农业断粮，饥荒衰退。
Wen Tiejun, renowned agri-economist: North Korea agri production/GDP per cap > China in 1980s; then Russia oil supply stopped — agri failed — tailspin.
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Allen Zhu of GSR Ventures said China to reopen over 2023: 1st, T-1 cities ex BJ; then large cities; then all before end 2023. If so, 1.5 years to endure. “Startups must plan cash-flow accordingly”.
朱啸虎称全境开放还要等一年半。苦俟河清，人、生意、现金流都要熬过去。
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Yicai editorial: after 20th Congress investors should be prepared for revaluation of property; policy shouldn’t be overly stimulative to send wrong bullish signal. Or long-term growth potential will suffer.
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Huawei’s Ren Zhengfei:
1. Global recession, no recovery in next 3-5yrs. NO ONE IS SPARED;
2. Focus on cash/profit, not sales. On life support in 2023/24, SURVIVAL UNSURE; STOP EMPTY TALKS;
3. KILL unprofitable units; FEEL THE CHILL
I thought we’re NOT allowed to be bearish?
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四川限电事件专家会议
Expert Notes on Electricity Rationing in Sichuan:
- abnormal heat once in decades, demand gap >1/4 ann. usage;
- rationing will be the “new normal”;
- industrial prod halted in all cities but 2;
- coal power won’t do or change 14th 5-Yr-Plan on energy.
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中国至美国海运订单剧烈下降；中国制造业订单下降20-30%；DHL称“不计成本发货的经济模式进入拐点”。
Shipping bookings from China to US way down; China manu order down 20-30%. DHL called “tipping point for the ship-at-all-cost economy”. (CNBC)
cnbc.com/2022/08/25/chi…
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China July Total Social Financing Collapse from ¥5.17tn to ¥0.75tn; Credit from ¥2.81tn to ¥0.679tn; loan growth near all time low.
NO 2H LIQUIDITY FLOODING.
七月社融崩塌：¥5.17万亿跌至¥7500亿；信贷¥2.81万亿跌至¥7500亿；贷款增速近历史最低。
坚持不搞大水漫灌、不刺激房地产。
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37个主要城市，只有3个土地相关的财政收入占比低于50%。今年来，所有省份财政入不敷出，但东部四个经济大省要完成财政上缴任务。
Only 3/37 major cities have <50% fiscal income from land; 13 cities >100%. YTD all provinces’ fiscal income < exp, but 4 asked to pay up dues to the state.
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Investors in Evergrande wealth mgmt demanding repayment. An emergency meeting was hosted this weekend but no one’s willing to accept the proposal that basically attempted to delay payments. The Corp has 240bn in ST debt but only 86bn cash/quasi. Stock -7%.
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1990, former president Jiang Zeming talked to ABC’s Barbara Walters on why China/US favorable trade agreement should continue. He ditched the interpreter half way. Great clip.
Economist of the Year - Asian Private Banker; FT Book of 2020; No.1 Strategist/Economist - AsiaMoney. “The man who called China’s boom & bust” - Bloomberg