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彭博微信公众号因举报被封。中国市场越发闭塞误导，定价失效。“稳定”压抑一切、无论对错，但明斯基终图穷匕见。
Bloomberg WeChat account suspended ‘cos snitchers. “Back to the USSR”. Mainland market increasingly misinformed & mispriced. Stability veils Minsky moment.
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Surreal images from James Web. It took over 20 years, $10bn to construct. But China blows that much on daily COVID tests every 3 days.
韦伯望远镜从时间的尽头传来宇宙的秘密。韦伯的建造花了二十多年，逾100亿美元。却只够中国全民做三次核酸。
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2003.04.02 一语成谶。
Front page of a Chinese newspaper 20 years ago read: ZERO POPULATION GROWTH IN 2022.
Today, China reports first population decline in 61 years.
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1997, Clinton & Jiang Zemin’s joint press conference. Then Jiang invited Clinton to dine at the Great Hall of People, & conducted the orchestra together. Jiang even chitchatted with Hilary a little.
The good old days, when China’s charm offensive was at its best.
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Explosions at Sinopec Shanghai Petrochem. Plant operating at 1/20 designed load cos weak demand since March. Fire & smoke billowing into sky, inferno erupting. Pray safe.
上海石化因需求不足超低负荷运行而爆炸，最低时1/20设计负荷。远处可见，滚滚浓烟逐日。祈祷平安。
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Asia Pet Fair in Shenzhen was canceled at the last minute. Nanshan District in SZ lockdown.
Exhibitors paid millions for stages/inventory/labor/rent — all gone, together with “light, hope & dream” .. despondent.
COVID-0 disruption continues. “光、理想、希望都没了”.
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给艺考生们说一下目前就业趋势：
表演--密室剧本/NPC；
播音--带货主播；
声乐--教小孩儿；
器乐--教小孩儿；
舞蹈--教小孩儿；
编导--给上面五个拍抖音。
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广州解封。今天广州疫情发布会的六点总结。
Guangzhou reopens. It’s one of the worst-hit cities in the current wave of COVID. Guangzhou is known for being practical & freewheeling. It will set example for other cities still beset by a virus that’s even weaker than flu.
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Heard that “Reopening Committee” has been formed & led by Wang Huning, Politburo Standing Member. The Committee is reviewing COVID data from US/HK/SG to assess various reopening scenarios, target 03/2023 reopen.
HK finally rebounded 3%, A-shares +1%. $EWH#EWHE#KWEBI#FXIJ#PGJhref="https://t.co/ZgN2EYqUzH" target="_blank" rel="noopener">twitter.com/HAOHONG_CFA/st…
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Today’s global market map: what’s going on in China?
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还没打就见血了。4400个股票受伤。
Chinese stocks collapsed in the shadow of a looming conflict. 4400 of 4800 stocks hurt.
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静待潮水来了解套。看看人家海狮：心态最重要，不要忘记微笑。
“Waiting for a rising tide to lift my boat. Meanwhile, smile.” — A stranded seal.
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“土地国有制是一切社会问题的根源，包括腐败、社会不平等”。许成钢，2013
然而，土地国有类似于自古以来的”盐铁专营”，土地税、转让金“取之于无形，使人不怒”，是中国社会“超稳定结构”的支柱之一。
“State ownership of land is the root of all society ills.” — Xu Chenggang, 2013
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六月新冠死亡人数0，流感4。一个死亡率最低的传染病却消耗着大量的医疗资源。
China recorded 0 death from COVID in June, but 4 death from flu. A disease with 0 death rate consumes bulk of healthcare resources.
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China’s Fauci, Dr. Zhang Wenhong:
“It’s imperative for me to be vaccinated. But I could only speak for myself. If I, a so-called COVID guru, were infected, it’d be a huge scandal. But for young guys, COVID’s no big deal.
For the country it’s imperative. Frontline staffs, too.”
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“If I weren’t Chinese, I’d be more open & less ambivalent. I’d gloat, as China’s vast & deprived population tormented & hated — like ants, dying trying. It’s a joke.
Pity I’m Chinese, born in desperate struggles against fate. I feel love, hate & sorry for her.” — Hu Xijin, 2012
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最烦这些研究报告的套话（括号解毒）
- 风物长宜/可期/静待（现在没戏）
- 估值吸引（其它方面没戏）
- 四轮驱动（少一个轮子就没戏）
- 深挖个股（行业没戏）
- 不确定中找确定（找免费午餐=全面没戏）
- 区间震荡（这是真的不知道）
当然，分析师也无奈。鱼缸里的鱼，只知道鱼缸里的天地。
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20条 “20 measures” cut foreign quarantine to 5+3, cancel Int’l flights circuit breaker, no indiscriminate lockdown, end unnecessary COVID test, no tracing 2ndary close contact, free people stuck in COVID zone etc.
My “billion-dollar tweet” 2wks ago all turned true. HK +8%!
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2023年投资展望。讨论了中国经济周期的运行、市场的周期低点、房地产、美联储政策展望和中美周期和冲突。完整30分钟节目链接 news.tvb.com/tc/programme/p…
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This is Old Guangzhou, or Canton in 1966, just before Cultural Revolution, when streets were cleaner than people’s clothes, & “the East Was Red” but not by the sun.
Guangzhou was the only window for foreign trade before “Reform & Open” in 1978. It’s a story of rags-to-riches.
Economist of the Year - Asian Private Banker; FT Book of 2020; No.1 Strategist/Economist - AsiaMoney. “The man who called China’s boom & bust” - Bloomberg