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“Don’t be afraid of COVID. It’s just a flu.” — scene at a makeshift hospital. Propaganda tone is changing.
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Today’s report.
English PDF 《“Chill” about CNY beyond 7》: research.growim.com/20220918Chilla…
中文PDF 《佛系“破7”》：research.growim.com/20220918Chilla…
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房地产内部会议纪要
Internal Property Meeting Summary:
- 300m sq construction halt, T-2 cities worst; local gov can’t handle;
- Rumored property fund of ¥200-300bn not enough; few shanty towns left to redevelop;
- Sales -20%, starts -30%, investment -10%: Existing supply surging
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China’s marriage registration in 2021 7.64m pairs - down 45% from 2013 peak of 13.5m pairs - lowest in almost 40 years.
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“The Yangtze”, An Epic Documentary (1/2)
In 1980, a young Japanese musician Sada Masashi fell in love with the Yangtze during his concert trip to China. 1.13m feet of film recorded the Yangtze’s glory in China’s early days of Reform & Open.
He took on ¥3.5tn debt, 30y to repay.
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“All Our Pharmacists Are Positive. Pls Bear With US.” - COVID situation in Beijing.
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长文讨论：中国市场的选择 — 是长期模式转变，还是短期老路一条。如何才能做到，目无全牛，而心中有牛？
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Whichever industry Tsinghua/PKU grads chose to go, the industry’d die:
- 2005 P&G/Unilever: Foreign Co. Peak
- 2008 Banks/Mobile: State Limit Salary
- 2015 Internet: Bubble Burst
- 2019 Teaching in Shenzhen: SZ Cut Teacher Salary
- 2020 Civil Servant: Local Gov Broke
Now what?
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China Loan Demand Collapsing. Not Seen Since Burst of 2015 Bubble.
中国贷款需求崩塌。2015年泡沫破灭以来未见。
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1/🧵China income data reveal new reality of “Common Prosperity”:
- Of 1,400m people, 964m <¥2k/month ($300), 547m < ¥1k ($150), only 70m people pay tax at min taxable income ¥5k/month ($770);
- ¥18k p.a. (56th %) x 2.62 pp/Household = ¥47k/HH = $7,255/HH (4th % US HH income).
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1/N：为什么中国房地产这两年问题这么多？1987-2021，中国城镇人口从2.75亿到9亿，新增6.25亿人口 x 35-40平米/人=220-250亿平米；同期，中国商品房销售累计231亿平米。供给～=需求。
Why Chinese property in trouble: 1987-2021 urban pop +625m x 37sqm/p ~=230m sqm; home sales = 231m sqm
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The 20th Congress raised a new term “to regulate the mechanism of wealth accumulation”.
Today, a labor researcher said “wealth income growth can’t be multiple times of labor income growth .. excess wealth should be taxed/regulated”.
Chinese market freaked out. Moutai tanked.
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Biggest typhoon casualty: the bronzecharging bull statue in front of the Shenzhen stock exchanged has fallen.
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很尊重老蛮的分析，但是这个帖子有些标题党：
- 这些数据的来源是公开的：央行、发改委、中登和上清所等。地方政府平台的数据可以从城投报表里看到。60、70万亿的估算也是来自官方摸底数据。因此，不存在什么“真实”、“大起底”这样的说法。
-… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
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美国消费者信心跌至衰退、欧债危机水平；中国消费者信心历史上最深最快地下跌。这是全球最大的两个经济体，但专家假装没事。
衰退不可避免，或我们已在衰退中。
China & US confidence epic plunged to crisis level. Recession is doomed, or we’re already in one, but pundits blind & deaf.
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Shenzhen invites bids to build phase 4 of personal tax platform, focusing on high-networth individuals, incl. stock ownership transfer, non-cash investment, ESOP/stock dividend tax installments etc.
Common prosperity is coming .. to a city near you. There’s no place to hide.
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稳住经济大盘会议感想：1）讨论了经济面临的下行压力，“努力确保二季度经济正增长”。特别提到五月克强指数运输量、贷款、用电量为负，失业率历史次高，超千万高校毕业生。08年GDP<3，但没有失业，现在情况不一样。“稳增长、稳就业、稳物价”，前两个目标面临挑战（1/N）
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这时在斯里兰卡，经济危机演变成政治危机。现代货币理论崩于眼前。
眼见他楼塌了。
Right now in Sri Lanka, economic crisis evolving into political crisis. Collapse of MMT right before our eyes.
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中外基金一起加仓：白酒、非白酒、食品加工。加仓老旧经济，看似做多，实是走在老路上，对于新的增长毫无信心，不得不抽烟喝酒。
这叫恶意做多？
Funds adding Baijiu & liquor, food & staples, cyclicals. Long on old & sick econ indeed hints at diffidence on fwd growth. NOT Bullish at all.
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At the keynote speech of the 20th Congress, most frequently used words were “people 人民/development 发展/safety 安全”. “Struggle 斗争/tech科技” were used a lot more than 19th Congress. But almost no mention about “market 市场”.
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1/N）系列推：中国房价下跌会引起金融危机吗？
2021底个人房贷¥38.3万亿，一年新增¥3.8万亿；商品房销售¥16万亿，房贷占约25%。调查显示：买房平均首付50%；二套房首付40-60%。房贷¥38.3万亿 vs 总房地产敞口¥62万亿。
因首付高，房价下跌*应该难直接*导致金融危机。
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关于美联储货币政策和市场泡沫的讨论。每次美国经济衰退、市场泡沫破灭，都是美联储加息加出来的。无一例外。
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China Youth Unemployment at ALL TIME HIGH: ~20%.
中国青年失业率有史以来最高，近20%。
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青年失业率/Youth unemployment
中国 China 🇨🇳：19.3%；
美国 US 🇺🇸 ：14.9%；
欧盟 EU🇪🇺：13.3%；
日本 JP🇯🇵：3.89%。
中国青年失业率有数据以来最高。China youth unemployment highest in data history.
Economist of the Year - Asian Private Banker; FT Book of 2020; No.1 Strategist/Economist - AsiaMoney. “The man who called China’s boom & bust” - Bloomberg