26
蔡洪平与王波明聊中国半导体实际情况：只能做>28纳米；光刻机零件受制；没有国际合作，零机会赶上，且越追越远。
Cai Hongping discussed China’s semi: can only do >28nm; US bans endanger key parts of lithograph; w/o global co-op, China has 0 chance to catch up, lagging further behind.
28
“买了三套买四套”
This has gone viral on Chinese internet.
“I call on every comrade to take the lead to buy a property.
If you are on your 1st property, then buy a 2nd one; if on 2nd, then buy a 3rd; already on 3rd? There’s always room for the 4th.”
Now let the buying begin.
29
一些你应该知道的马甲：
玉渊谭天：央视新闻
陶然笔记：经济日报
朝阳少侠：外交部
有理儿有面：政法委
侠客岛：人民日报/海外版
补壹刀：人民日报社/环球网
枢密院十号：人民日报社/环球网
牛弹琴：新华社
长安街知事：北京日报
青蜂侠：中国青年网
市说新语：国家市场监督管理局
(请找一下图中🦓)
30
一图看懂中国经济现状。
A picture to sum up China’s economy.
31
30年前，葛优讲解如何写出更好的文章。中国情景喜剧首秀即天花板。文字是用来解放思想的，而非禁锢。
In China’s 1st sitcom 30 yrs ago, Ge You explained writing for the people, not dictating to them. Chinese sitcom peaked at debut. Words are to set the mind free, not to confine it.
32
1966.08.18, Today 56 years ago, Chairman Mao greeting the Little Red Guards for the first time on Tiananmen Square, with then Premier Zhou Enlai, Jiang Qing, Lin Biao.
The onset of Cultural Revolution.
33
“新十条”防疫新政：
- 新冠降为乙类传染病
- 不判定密接
- 防控重点转为防重症
- 确诊可居家，不强制去方舱***
- 社会面不再搞核酸
- 分类分诊
- 提高疫苗接种，特别是老人
- 出入、交通全面恢复
- 方舱清空（如图）
- 复工复产
现在再去讨论疫情，就如，领导停了你还说，领导夹菜你转桌。
34
Li Zhanshu, Chairman of the Standing Committee of NPCC: China understands & supports Russia’s core interest & decisions. Re Ukraine, Russia was cornered by the U.S./NATO & had to defend itself & its people.
35
Traffic jam in Beijing. Sign of Reopening.
37
《论中国信息技术产业发展》江泽民
最有前瞻性的预判之一。
As early as 2006, Jiang Zemin presaged the dawn of the semi industry. If not sufficiently developed, China would be vulnerable to embargo by the west, he said. He also foresaw China’s ability to make 14nm chips by 2020. twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
38
“有一只猪有些与众不同。它是肉猪，但长得又黑又瘦，两眼炯炯有光。这家伙像山羊一样敏捷，一米高的猪栏一跳就过；它还能跳上猪圈的房顶，这一点又像是猫，不在圈里待着。
领导把它定成坏分子，要对它采取专政 .. 但假如专政是指绳索和杀猪刀的话，那是一点门都没有.”
— 王小波《一只特立独行的猪》
39
Right now, Taiwan 101 Tower lights up to welcome #Pelosi. Pelosi’s puts on Taiwan semiconductor are in combat readiness.
40
越南经典电影《常在我心中》
Vietnamese theatre classic “Always on My Mind”.
41
GDP of Chinese cities in lockdown now 35% of total, highest since 2021. Shenzhen, China Silicon Valley, has 8 districts in lockdown.
If persists, 3Q GDP will be even worse than 2Q of 0.4% growth, full year GDP 2.x%.
42
曾经的期货程序化交易高手，两千多万的盘子，现在过着10块钱一天的游荡生活。有人会觉得他很落魄，但他却活出了自我、开心知足。
桃李春风一杯酒，江湖夜雨十年灯。
He’s once a program futures trader with positions >¥20m, now on ¥10/day in abject poverty. But he did it his way & happy.
43
一些无法翻译的中文：复盘、赋能、赛道、组合拳、引爆点、生命周期、垂直领域 … 杀了我吧。
任何打着这些官腔的会议，都是浪费时间大会。在任何报告里，只要出现这些陈词滥调，请马上删除扔进垃圾回收。
44
最近两天，三篇重要的文章：
1）人民日报《增强对当前疫情防控政策的信心和耐心》;
2）人民日报《“动态清零”可持续而且必须坚持》;
3）新华社《增强定力耐力疫情防控绝不能“躺平”》。
45
王小鲁：市场化是社会发展的必经之路。你想不要这套东西，实践证明你失败了。思想、技术、制度财富是人类共同的财富，不要学义和团，凡是外来的都拒绝，自己把路走死了。
46
“We’re not afraid of COVID, but we’re afraid of disobedience.”
47
Premier Li Keqiang visiting Huangshan, one of China’s most famous mountains, with Chiefs of IMF, World Bank, OECD etc.
“We are showing our hospitality to our foreign friends. After the pandemic, there will be more guests from domestic and afar.” Li said.
No one’s wearing mask.
48
一年前写的预测2022《夕惕若厉》，关于2022年最差情景，经典的滞涨，股债双杀，上证略低于3000点。不幸，一语成谶。
很快，又要到预测2023的时刻了。
49
Nowadays researching in China is like shouting underwater — it’s all muffled.
But the longer the voices are suppressed under water, the more fierce the struggle will be, and the bigger the stir later.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Economist of the Year - Asian Private Banker; FT Book of 2020; No.1 Strategist/Economist - AsiaMoney. “The man who called China’s boom & bust” - Bloomberg