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In response to popular demand. An AEA discussion board, to be populated with information about job market, discussions about anything economic. True facts, no rumors, and civility. Whether it works depends on all of us.
aeaweb.org/economics-disc…
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Too slow progress on euro inflation should be seen as great news, not bad news: It tells us that unemployment can decline for quite a bit more without triggering overheating. The natural unemployment rate is lower than policy makers assumed.
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Should we get rid of the natural rate hypothesis? What evidence is there for hysteresis? Can we exploit the Phillips curve trade off? For all the answers, see bit.ly/2jwnUGH
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Rethinking monetary policy, with Ben Bernanke, Mario Draghi, Phillip Hildebrand, Lael Brainard, Alan Possen. bit.ly/2kM3UQH
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For those who still think that trade wars have a winner and a loser: Look at the synchronous movements of stock markets in Asia and in the US on Friday, and on Monday. Case closed.
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With the threatened tariffs, the Chinese may be succeeding where the Democrats have so far failed: Decreasing support in the Trump base. Russians may have determined the last election. The Chinese may determine this one. :)
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A third pass at DSGEs :(. Theory is elegant. Reality is messy. One class of models cannot do everything. bit.ly/2jcmX4O
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My discussion of Bernanke's paper on the crisis. 3 points
1. A typology of crisis. From multipliers to multiple equilibria
2. Multipliers vs multiple equilibria. Why it matters
3. When do multiple equilibria emerge? Dark corners or hidden mines?
bit.ly/2QFxLGq
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On immigration in Europe. The only realistic option, economically and politically: Let countries set their own targets, but fully mutualise the costs across EU members. (As an added bonus: a good and sellable reason to have a common EU budget.) bit.ly/2MJFbFF
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Economists, policy debates, and policy making. A note with Jean Tirole and Agnes Benassy-Quere. bit.ly/2vOPVe7
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First tweet success, so second tweet :) The shape of the Phillips curve, and how it makes life harder for the Fed bit.ly/1OEbFLK
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Further thoughts on DSGE models: What we agree on and what we do not. piie.com/blogs/realtime… .
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On the need for (at least) five classes of macro models :) bit.ly/2nVMLjK
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On the euro architecture. The focus has been on fiscal and banking unions. To me, even more important is improving macroeconomic adjustments. And the only solution I see is national wage agreements. bit.ly/2CpPJJb
Robert Solow Professor of economics emeritus, MIT
Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics