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some room to go to get to gender balance... twitter.com/Lagarde/status…
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In this courageous compromise, democrats get all the spending they want, republicans get all the spending they want, and nobody pays more taxes. :( With such sacrifices, no wonder this compromise was so hard to achieve.
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How can we have so much political and geopolitical uncertainty and so little economic uncertainty?
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2. An important message: Yes, debt is high, but debt service, the fiscal cost of debt is very low. And this is what matters. If we have good uses for debt, such as the various forms of public investment in the Biden plans, this is the time to do it and issue long maturity bonds.
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第三に、金融政策への負担を和らげ、必要なときに金融政策を活用する余地を作ることです。超低金利は金融のリスクも伴います。プライマリーバランス赤字の多少の拡大が、多少の金利上昇をもたらすでしょう。
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主なモチベーションは需要の確保ですが、プライマリーバランス赤字は供給サイド、成長のために用いられるべきです。橋やトンネルの必要性について懐疑的なことはもっともなことです。それでも、財政を用いるべき良いプロジェクトが数多くあります。例えば、出生率を向上させること、地球温暖化への対処
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The failure of covid zero. Likely to have major implications for China and the rest of the world.
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高水準の債務はリスキーではないか？その通りです。急停止のリスクは現在も存在し、しばらくは存在し続けるでしょう。しかし、純債務が160%でも、180%でも、140%でもリスクは概ね同じでしょう。流動性の危機に対処する手段を有し、また、意思も有することを日銀は示しています。
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2. When inflation comes from an increase in commodity and energy prices, convincing workers that unemployment has to increase to control inflation, is even harder. “Why should I lose my job because Putin invaded Ukraine ?”
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Struck by the importance of the collapse of networks in understanding major macro fluctuations. Three examples:
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プライマリーバランス赤字の拡大や債務残高対GDP比の上昇は長期的なコストを伴うものでしょうか？その通りです。国債は資本をクラウドアウトするでしょう。しかし、超低金利を反映してリスク調整後の資本の収益率は低く、資本蓄積の阻害に伴う長期的な厚生コストは大きなものではないでしょう。
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Anybody who says that economics is in trouble, that economists do not deal with the relevant issues, just has not done his/her homework. Look at the set of papers presented at the AEA meetings. Amazing. bit.ly/2J2Iiub
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Re: Draghi new measures. Wouldn't the euro area be better off today if there was a different fiscal/money mix. If, for example, fiscal deficits were, say, 1% of GDP higher, and the ECB could avoid negative rates, additional asset purchases, etc? Happy to hear disagreements...
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Janos Kornai died yesterday. He was one of my heroes, not just because of his research, but because the way he lived his life. Here is an interview of him I did in 1998. kornai-janos.hu/Blanchard1999%…
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1/8 This is a great discussion, so I shall continue. Second round answer to @IvanWerning. I like very much the Werning-Lorenzoni framework. dropbox.com/s/pbsurtd5onvn… One of its merits is indeed to show that thinking in terms of distributional conflict is totally mainstream.
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3. The link to the English version of the report (warning: a rather voluminous 500+ pages) is available at bit.ly/3hYC0eT
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1. A mild disagreement with @paukrugman on the measures to fight global warming in the IRA. It is all subsidies, no taxes. Maybe it was the best that could be achieved politically. But let’s not kid ourselves. It is a sure way to spend more than needed to achieve the desired goal
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Quick reactions to the French economic plan released today.
The three legs, climate, competitivite (helping firms), cohesion (helping people) make good sense. The amount committed, 100 b euros on top of what has already been spent is substantial. But (there is always a but...)
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For those who teach intermediate macro: Gerhard Illing, my coauthor for the German edition of Macroeconomics has written (in english) a chapter on the economic effects of covid. bit.ly/3cZ2J9U. It is richer and slightly more advanced than my own (bit.ly/2GZB375)
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Italian debt is sustainable.
But to make sure, the Italian government, euro-members, the ESM, and the ECB all have to do what they need to do. Please do it.
More flesh and arguments in bit.ly/2IWouan (unintended irony: look at the bitly address...)
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What is happening to Greece's former chief statistician #AndreasGeorgiou is unacceptable. An appeals court has now found him liable of slander... Now in 10th year, #Greece should end the injustice and exonerate him.
amstat.org/asa/News/Greek…
#JusticeForGeorgiou #DataIntegrity
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Un tweet en francais, sur ``l'affaire Benalla.'' Sentiment fort de tempete dans un verre d'eau, de quasi hysterie journalistique. Habitant aux US, et souffrant de ses exces, j'esperai mieux des journaux de mon pays.
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In response. I do not think I am known as a pro-austerity messiah... But this does not imply that I have to say amen to every fiscal expansion, from Trump to Italy. Important to look at each situation on its own, and avoid sweeping ideological positions.
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1. PIIE has created a great go-to site on inequality: facts, perceptions, policies. bit.ly/331EXo81.
For example, did you know that, since 1985, among AEs, Sweden had the largest increase in its Gini coefficient, Greece had a decrease, France had practically no change.
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Exceptional agreement among experts across the spectrum about the effect of inequality on the health of liberal democracy, and about the need for more redistribution:
igmchicago.org/surveys/inequa…
Robert Solow Professor of economics emeritus, MIT
Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics