1
日本は特に悪性の「長期停滞」、つまり、国内の民間需要の不足に直面しています。完全雇用を維持するためには、積極的な金融政策と財政政策が必要になります。金融政策に可能なことは全て行いました。そこで、財政政策の役割が求められます。
2
1/8. A point which is often lost in discussions of inflation and central bank policy. Inflation is fundamentally the outcome of the distributional conflict, between firms, workers, and taxpayers. It stops only when the various players are forced to accept the outcome.
3
I feel the use of ``stagflation’’ is wrong. We are not seeing anything like stagnation. What we are seeing instead is very strong growth, fueled by private and public demand, hitting supply constraints, and leading to some sharp price increases. Nothing to do with stagflation.
4
1. If it is confirmed that even 3 doses of Sinovac are ineffective against Omicron, China now has 1.4b non immunized citizens... This has major economic implications for China and for the world.
5
This is insane. twitter.com/chigrl/status/…
6
The world is de facto at war (against the virus, rather than against each other---this is the good news...) With this in mind: US Federal deficits as a ratio to GDP: 1942: -12%, 1943: -26%, 1944: -21%, 1945: -20%. Let's not be squeamish.
7
A 11-piece thread on Italy, the ECB, and the need to avoid another euro crisis. Start with the basics, the first two points being the most important.
8
J'ai peur que les économistes de NUPES aient mal compris la signification de multiplicateurs supérieurs a 1. Comme ils ont tendance à me citer, je me sens oblige de corriger. Deux points tout simples (bien sûr, il y a beaucoup de complications potentielles que j’ignore ici):
9
A fascinating graph, showing the dynamics of the second wave in France.
Things were fine in July, but the 20-29 year olds starting relaxing.
Over time, they contaminated older generations until infection rates were high for all.
How will the reverse movement proceed?
10
A question. Central banks have large research departments. Ministries of finance typically do not even have a research department. (with the result that research on monetary policy is much more developed than research on fiscal (macro) policy). Why?
11
My two cents on the virus today. Two vital sets of measures.
Keep the flow of infections down so the health system is not overwhelmed. Do whatever it takes.
Prepare fiscal measures, including transfers and backstops to banks. Do whatever it takes.
This is more or less it.
12
"Against ignorance we have education. Against inequalities, development. Against cynicism, trust and good faith. Against fanaticism, culture. Against disease and epidemics, medicine. Against the threats on the planet, science."
Macron in his speech to Congress. Feels good.
13
I finished the 8th ed of ``Macroeconomics'' before covid came. I have now written a covid chapter. It is largely self contained and may be of interest to teachers, students, and interested observers. Comments and suggestions welcome. bit.ly/2GZB375
14
プライマリーバランス赤字を維持し、更には拡大する理由は三点あります。第一に、需要を確保するためです。財政のスタンスが引き締めとなれば、何が需要を確保するのでしょうか？民間の需要が何らかの理由で拡大すれば、財政の引き締め余地があるでしょう。しかし、現時点ではそうではないでしょう。
16
第二に、インフレ率がインフレ目標を下回っていることです。インフレ目標の達成は望ましいことです。そのため、経済の過熱をある程度の期間継続する必要があります。それにより賃金と物価が上昇します。プライマリーバランス赤字の多少の拡大が、その達成の助けとなるでしょう。
17
I did not leak, but am not too unhappy that it did leak :). 7 years already, and still no clear/realistic plan. twitter.com/TrineeshB/stat…
18
Some quick reactions to the new lockdowns in Europe.
1. The degree of uncertainty is much higher than in the first wave. In the first wave, the (incorrect) belief was that the infection rate would quickly decrease and remain low thereafter.
19
20
第三に、金融政策への負担を和らげ、必要なときに金融政策を活用する余地を作ることです。超低金利は金融のリスクも伴います。プライマリーバランス赤字の多少の拡大が、多少の金利上昇をもたらすでしょう。
21
主なモチベーションは需要の確保ですが、プライマリーバランス赤字は供給サイド、成長のために用いられるべきです。橋やトンネルの必要性について懐疑的なことはもっともなことです。それでも、財政を用いるべき良いプロジェクトが数多くあります。例えば、出生率を向上させること、地球温暖化への対処
22
Inspired by France's events. Could it be that, given the political constraints on redistribution and the constraints from capital mobility, we may just not be able to alleviate inequality and insecurity enough to prevent populism and revolutions. What comes after capitalism?
23
1. The next few days will likely see an avalanche of analyses of the economic effects of the corona virus. Here are a few points, building on a previous thread. Basic point: Anti virus measures aim at the core of economic organization, the division of labor.
24
高水準の債務はリスキーではないか？その通りです。急停止のリスクは現在も存在し、しばらくは存在し続けるでしょう。しかし、純債務が160%でも、180%でも、140%でもリスクは概ね同じでしょう。流動性の危機に対処する手段を有し、また、意思も有することを日銀は示しています。
25
On MMT. I shall write a longer piece. But: Yes, fiscal policy can be used to maintain output at potential. No, the deficit, unless very small, cannot be fully financed through non-interest bearing money creation, without leading to high or hyperinflation.
Robert Solow Professor of economics emeritus, MIT
Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics