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日本は特に悪性の「長期停滞」、つまり、国内の民間需要の不足に直面しています。完全雇用を維持するためには、積極的な金融政策と財政政策が必要になります。金融政策に可能なことは全て行いました。そこで、財政政策の役割が求められます。
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高水準の債務はリスキーではないか？その通りです。急停止のリスクは現在も存在し、しばらくは存在し続けるでしょう。しかし、純債務が160%でも、180%でも、140%でもリスクは概ね同じでしょう。流動性の危機に対処する手段を有し、また、意思も有することを日銀は示しています。
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プライマリーバランス赤字の拡大や債務残高対GDP比の上昇は長期的なコストを伴うものでしょうか？その通りです。国債は資本をクラウドアウトするでしょう。しかし、超低金利を反映してリスク調整後の資本の収益率は低く、資本蓄積の阻害に伴う長期的な厚生コストは大きなものではないでしょう。
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主なモチベーションは需要の確保ですが、プライマリーバランス赤字は供給サイド、成長のために用いられるべきです。橋やトンネルの必要性について懐疑的なことはもっともなことです。それでも、財政を用いるべき良いプロジェクトが数多くあります。例えば、出生率を向上させること、地球温暖化への対処
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第三に、金融政策への負担を和らげ、必要なときに金融政策を活用する余地を作ることです。超低金利は金融のリスクも伴います。プライマリーバランス赤字の多少の拡大が、多少の金利上昇をもたらすでしょう。
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Some thoughts about the need to rethink EU fiscal rules and the EU fiscal architecture in a low interest rate environment. bit.ly/2X0wzUa
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Not joking: Very relevant, as we learned in 2008-9.
Maybe the toughest challenge to macro as we do it. twitter.com/JustinWolfers/…
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Macro Policy makers: Please listen to the experts 😀 (I know: Such listening is not in fashion. ☹️ But we actually know something about the economy works)
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On the P curve discussion. To try to clarify semantics, and what I think the discussion is about.
I take ``belief in the Phillips curve’’ to mean ``belief that there is a positive relation, however complex and shifting, between inflation and activity.”
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A new and creative definition of currency manipulation by the US administration: Not intervening to prevent market movements. Orwell...
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Re: Draghi new measures. Wouldn't the euro area be better off today if there was a different fiscal/money mix. If, for example, fiscal deficits were, say, 1% of GDP higher, and the ECB could avoid negative rates, additional asset purchases, etc? Happy to hear disagreements...
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Interesting IMF graph on the effects of euro fiscal expansion of 1% for 2 years through public investment with unchanged interest rates bit.ly/2ySqn5a Output higher by 1.4% for 2 years, higher output in the long run, and an increase in D/Y <1% Attractive trade-off...
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Exceptional agreement among experts across the spectrum about the effect of inequality on the health of liberal democracy, and about the need for more redistribution:
igmchicago.org/surveys/inequa…
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My views on the Phillips curve puzzles and non puzzles. And the implication for wage inflation targeting. (from a discussion at Brookings)
bit.ly/319lCO1
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The heated discussion between Larry Summers and Emmanuel Saez at the PIIE conference ( bit.ly/2BtKqWK) is exciting. But the discussion by Gabriel Zucman (currently only audio at bit.ly/2Iv4sno session 11, at 23:58, video available monday) is more informative. twitter.com/gabriel_zucman…
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Everything you wanted to know about the evolution of income, wealth, social, health, inequality in the US and in Europe in the 10 minutes video of Lucas Chancel presentation at the PIIE conference on combating inequality bit.ly/31P0n4g
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Taking again the risk of discussing an MMT proposition, and fully expecting to be told that I have not understood….
One of the propositions of MMT is that, in contrast to standard mainstream arguments, government spending is automatically financed by money creation.
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A wide ranging discussion about public debt between Ken Rogoff and me, moderated by Gita Gopinath. More convergence than divergence. I learned a lot from it. (the video lasts about an hour. Starts at minute 4.50 ) twitter.com/IMFLive/status…
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Much of the debate about fiscal policy appears to be based on the notion that governments will ALWAYS misbehave, so one should NEVER tell them that there is more policy space, even when there is. This is counterproductive, and leads governments to ignore academic advice.
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some room to go to get to gender balance... twitter.com/Lagarde/status…
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The best argument for helicopter money in the Euro area is to get around the fiscal rules. But it is a avenue full of risks, in particular for the ECB. Much better to relax the fiscal rules in the first place. twitter.com/PIIE/status/11…
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Dani Rodrik's and my conclusions form the conference on inequality we organized in October. Governments have the tools to combat inequality if they want to. bit.ly/2D4fcpZ
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Cost of banana 2 dollars. cost of duct tape: 3 dollars. Price of banana with duct tape: 120,000 dollars. Conclusion for research: We need a deeper theory of markups (and entry in the banana plus duct tape market). twitter.com/gabriel_zucman…
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How can we have so much political and geopolitical uncertainty and so little economic uncertainty?
Robert Solow Professor of economics emeritus, MIT
Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics